--- title: "Wrist Candy case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Wrist Candy ($1.76) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.20% from 18 items with odds, observed 83.79% over 7,223 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/wrist-candy rendered: 2026-11-11T18:46Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Wrist Candy](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/wrist-candy) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Wrist Candy A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/wrist-candy?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/wrist-candy?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/wrist-candy) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/wrist-candy?window=all) Price · $1.76 Advertised RTP · 89.20% · EV $1.57 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 83.79% · 7,223 openings, odds method Variance · 24.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 30 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 88.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 84.32% ±35.30 753 openings 7 days · 84.66% ±12.25 6,250 openings 30 days · 83.79% ±11.40 7,223 openings since tracking started · 83.79% ±11.40 7,223 openings 48.5% 84.5% 120.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/wrist-candy?window=24h) | 753 | 84.32% ±35.3 | −0.3σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/wrist-candy?window=7d) | 6,250 | 84.66% ±12.3 | −0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/wrist-candy) | 7,223 | 83.79% ±11.4 | −0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/wrist-candy?window=all) | 7,223 | 83.79% ±11.4 | −0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,229 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [SAMSUNG Galaxy Watch 7 40mm, Cream other](https://gambatracker.com/items/samsung-galaxy-watch-7-40mm-cream) | 1 in 2,000 | $345 | 11.0% | 2 | 3.6 | 0.55× | | [Barton Alligator Grain Leather Watch Band other](https://gambatracker.com/items/barton-alligator-grain-leather-watch-band) | 1 in 286 | $30.00 | 6.7% | 16 | 25.3 | 0.63× | | [Leather Watch Box 12 Mens Watch Organizer other](https://gambatracker.com/items/leather-watch-box-12-mens-watch-organizer) | 1 in 286 | $28.00 | 6.2% | 23 | 25.3 | 0.91× | | [SpongeBob Watch other](https://gambatracker.com/items/spongebob-watch) | 1 in 250 | $25.00 | 6.4% | 27 | 28.9 | 0.93× | | [Watch Repair Kit other](https://gambatracker.com/items/watch-repair-kit) | 1 in 250 | $21.00 | 5.4% | 40 | 28.9 | 1.38× | | [FANMIS Men's Solar Powered Casual Quartz Wrist Watch other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fanmis-mens-solar-powered-casual-quartz-wrist-watch) | 1 in 250 | $20.00 | 5.1% | 30 | 28.9 | 1.04× | | [Watch Winder for Automatic Watches other](https://gambatracker.com/items/watch-winder-for-automatic-watches) | 1 in 143 | $16.20 | 7.2% | 62 | 50.6 | 1.23× | | [Casio Men's Vintage F91W-1 Resin Strap Digital Sport Watch other](https://gambatracker.com/items/casio-mens-vintage-f91w-1-resin-strap-digital-sport-watch) | 1 in 143 | $16.00 | 7.1% | 42 | 50.6 | 0.83× | | [Meliya Metal Watch Band other](https://gambatracker.com/items/meliya-metal-watch-band) | 1 in 133 | $12.00 | 5.7% | 51 | 54.2 | 0.94× | | [PanzerGlass AntiBacterial Apple Watch Series 9/8/7 Screen Protector - 9H other](https://gambatracker.com/items/panzerglass-antibacterial-apple-watch-series-9-8-7-screen-protector-9h) | 1 in 100 | $8.60 | 5.5% | 66 | 72.3 | 0.91× | | [Quick Release Leather Watch Band other](https://gambatracker.com/items/quick-release-leather-watch-band) | 1 in 100 | $7.00 | 4.5% | 82 | 72.3 | 1.13× | | [Watch Roll Travel Leather Case container](https://gambatracker.com/items/watch-roll-travel-leather-case) | 1 in 74 | $4.60 | 4.0% | 96 | 97.6 | 0.98× | | [BISONSTRAP Watch Strap other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bisonstrap-watch-strap) | 1 in 74 | $4.20 | 3.6% | 87 | 97.6 | 0.89× | | [Silicone Rubber Watch Band other](https://gambatracker.com/items/silicone-rubber-watch-band) | 1 in 67 | $3.15 | 3.0% | 101 | 108.4 | 0.93× | | [MioHHR Slim Metal Band Compatible with Apple Watch Band 42mm other](https://gambatracker.com/items/miohhr-slim-metal-band-compatible-with-apple-watch-band-42mm) | 1 in 67 | $2.70 | 2.6% | 118 | 108.4 | 1.09× | | [Watch Display Stand Holder Cool Resin Dog other](https://gambatracker.com/items/watch-display-stand-holder-cool-resin-dog) | 1 in 50 | $1.75 | 2.2% | 164 | 144.6 | 1.13× | | [Mayflower Products Pro Size Polishing Cleaning Cloth other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mayflower-products-pro-size-polishing-cleaning-cloth) | 30.0% | $0.35 | 6.7% | 2,130 | 2168.7 | 0.98× | | [Bling Frame Protective Case for Apple Watch Series 6/5/4 44mm other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bling-frame-protective-case-for-apple-watch-series-6-5-4-44mm) | 56.2% | $0.20 | 7.2% | 4,092 | 4062.7 | 1.01× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [SAMSUNG Galaxy Watch 7 40mm, Cream other](https://gambatracker.com/items/samsung-galaxy-watch-7-40mm-cream) Hidden $1.76 $345 196.0x 2026-11-09 05:16 UTC [SAMSUNG Galaxy Watch 7 40mm, Cream other](https://gambatracker.com/items/samsung-galaxy-watch-7-40mm-cream) Hidden $1.76 $345 196.0x 2026-11-07 13:44 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=wrist-candy) [Bling Frame Protective Case for Apple Watch Series 6/5/4 44mm other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bling-frame-protective-case-for-apple-watch-series-6-5-4-44mm) Hidden $1.76 $0.20 0.11x 2026-11-11 18:25 UTC [Bling Frame Protective Case for Apple Watch Series 6/5/4 44mm other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bling-frame-protective-case-for-apple-watch-series-6-5-4-44mm) Hidden $1.76 $0.20 0.11x 2026-11-11 18:25 UTC [Mayflower Products Pro Size Polishing Cleaning Cloth other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mayflower-products-pro-size-polishing-cleaning-cloth) Hidden $1.76 $0.35 0.20x 2026-11-11 18:25 UTC [Bling Frame Protective Case for Apple Watch Series 6/5/4 44mm other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bling-frame-protective-case-for-apple-watch-series-6-5-4-44mm) [Sharkinz](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Sharkinz) $1.76 $0.20 0.11x 2026-11-11 18:25 UTC [Bling Frame Protective Case for Apple Watch Series 6/5/4 44mm other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bling-frame-protective-case-for-apple-watch-series-6-5-4-44mm) Hidden $1.76 $0.20 0.11x 2026-11-11 17:35 UTC [Bling Frame Protective Case for Apple Watch Series 6/5/4 44mm other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bling-frame-protective-case-for-apple-watch-series-6-5-4-44mm) Hidden $1.76 $0.20 0.11x 2026-11-11 17:35 UTC [Bling Frame Protective Case for Apple Watch Series 6/5/4 44mm other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bling-frame-protective-case-for-apple-watch-series-6-5-4-44mm) Hidden $1.76 $0.20 0.11x 2026-11-11 17:35 UTC [Bling Frame Protective Case for Apple Watch Series 6/5/4 44mm other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bling-frame-protective-case-for-apple-watch-series-6-5-4-44mm) Hidden $1.76 $0.20 0.11x 2026-11-11 17:35 UTC [Mayflower Products Pro Size Polishing Cleaning Cloth other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mayflower-products-pro-size-polishing-cleaning-cloth) Hidden $1.76 $0.35 0.20x 2026-11-11 17:35 UTC [Bling Frame Protective Case for Apple Watch Series 6/5/4 44mm other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bling-frame-protective-case-for-apple-watch-series-6-5-4-44mm) [SavagePlays](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/SavagePlays) $1.76 $0.20 0.11x 2026-11-11 17:35 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.76 | 89.20% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $345 (196.0x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.20 on average: an expected loss of $10.80 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt