--- title: "0.4 AK-47s case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "0.4 AK-47s ($0.21) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.84% from 8 items with odds, observed 75.77% over 16.5K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/04-ak-47s rendered: 2026-11-11T22:14Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [0.4 AK-47s](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/04-ak-47s) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · 0.4 AK-47s A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/04-ak-47s?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/04-ak-47s?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/04-ak-47s) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/04-ak-47s?window=all) Price · $0.21 · 0.42 coins Advertised RTP · 88.84% · EV $0.19 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 75.77% · 16.5K openings, odds method Variance · 274.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 91.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 59.25% ±85.24 1,451 openings 7 days · 76.65% ±26.45 15.1K openings 30 days · 75.77% ±25.31 16.5K openings since tracking started · 75.77% ±25.31 16.5K openings -0.5% 72.3% 145.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/04-ak-47s?window=24h) | 1,451 | 59.25% ±85.2 | −0.7σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/04-ak-47s?window=7d) | 15.1K | 76.65% ±26.5 | −0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/04-ak-47s) | 16.5K | 75.77% ±25.3 | −1.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/04-ak-47s?window=all) | 16.5K | 75.77% ±25.3 | −1.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16.5K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $285 570 coins | 15.3% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× | | [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $162 323 coins | 8.7% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.61× | | [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $40.95 81.9 coins | 8.8% | 6 | 6.6 | 0.91× | | [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $26.89 53.78 coins | 7.2% | 11 | 8.2 | 1.34× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 1,667 | $21.58 43.15 coins | 6.9% | 12 | 9.9 | 1.21× | | [AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $1.07 2.13 coins | 49.5% | 1,454 | 1428.2 | 1.02× | | [Five-SeveN \| Forest Night (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-forest-night-field-tested) | 45.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 2.4% | 7,534 | 7412.9 | 1.02× | | [FAMAS \| Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) | 46.2% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 1.2% | 7,455 | 7603.9 | 0.98× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) Hidden $0.21 0.42 coins $162 323 coins 769.6x 2026-11-07 16:59 UTC [AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-factory-new) Hidden $0.21 0.42 coins $40.95 81.9 coins 195.0x 2026-11-10 20:57 UTC [AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-factory-new) Hidden $0.21 0.42 coins $40.95 81.9 coins 195.0x 2026-11-09 11:33 UTC [AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-factory-new) Hidden $0.21 0.42 coins $40.95 81.9 coins 195.0x 2026-11-06 15:45 UTC [AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-factory-new) Hidden $0.21 0.42 coins $40.95 81.9 coins 195.0x 2026-11-06 15:42 UTC [AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-factory-new) Hidden $0.21 0.42 coins $40.95 81.9 coins 195.0x 2026-11-06 00:55 UTC [AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-factory-new) Hidden $0.21 0.42 coins $40.95 81.9 coins 195.0x 2026-11-04 08:09 UTC [AK-47 | Red Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-field-tested) [ToxicRaven7045](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/ToxicRaven7045) $0.21 0.42 coins $26.89 53.78 coins 128.0x 2026-11-10 13:19 UTC [AK-47 | Red Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-field-tested) Hidden $0.21 0.42 coins $26.89 53.78 coins 128.0x 2026-11-10 09:37 UTC [AK-47 | Red Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-field-tested) Hidden $0.21 0.42 coins $26.89 53.78 coins 128.0x 2026-11-09 17:22 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=04-ak-47s) [Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-forest-night-field-tested) Hidden $0.21 0.42 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 22:10 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $0.21 0.42 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 22:10 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $0.21 0.42 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 22:10 UTC [Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-forest-night-field-tested) Hidden $0.21 0.42 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 22:10 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $0.21 0.42 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 22:10 UTC [Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-forest-night-field-tested) [LukinhaSz777](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/LukinhaSz777) $0.21 0.42 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 22:10 UTC [Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-forest-night-field-tested) Hidden $0.21 0.42 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 22:10 UTC [Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-forest-night-field-tested) Hidden $0.21 0.42 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 22:10 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $0.21 0.42 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 21:53 UTC [Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-forest-night-field-tested) Hidden $0.21 0.42 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 21:53 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.21 | 88.84% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 0.1% covert 0.1% Mythical 8.7% consumer 91.2% best hit $162 (769.6x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.84 on average: an expected loss of $11.16 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt