--- title: "1% AWP case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "1% AWP ($7.69) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 7 items with odds, observed 96.25% over 37.2K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/1-awp rendered: 2026-11-11T18:21Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [1% AWP](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/1-awp) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · 1% AWP A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/1-awp?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/1-awp?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/1-awp) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/1-awp?window=all) Price · $7.69 · 15.37 coins Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $6.91 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 96.25% · 37.2K openings, odds method Variance · 279.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 417 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 81.44% ±53.19 3,797 openings 7 days · 103.58% ±18.82 30.3K openings 30 days · 96.25% ±17.00 37.2K openings since tracking started · 96.25% ±17.00 37.2K openings 27.5% 81.5% 135.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/1-awp?window=24h) | 3,797 | 81.44% ±53.2 | −0.3σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/1-awp?window=7d) | 30.3K | 103.58% ±18.8 | +1.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/1-awp) | 37.2K | 96.25% ±17.0 | +0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/1-awp?window=all) | 37.2K | 96.25% ±17.0 | +0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 37.2K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $9,318 18,637 coins | 13.5% | 7 | 3.7 | 1.88× | | [AWP \| Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $4,198 8,395 coins | 18.2% | 11 | 11.2 | 0.99× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $721 1,442 coins | 20.9% | 59 | 74.4 | 0.79× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $639 1,278 coins | 18.5% | 69 | 74.4 | 0.93× | | [Souvenir AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-pink-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 357 | $424 847 coins | 17.2% | 104 | 104.2 | 1.00× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Graphite (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-graphite-factory-new) | 1 in 357 | $290 580 coins | 11.7% | 113 | 104.2 | 1.08× | | [FAMAS \| Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) | 99.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.1% | 36,841 | 36832.0 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $7.69 15.37 coins $9,318 18,637 coins 1,213x 2026-11-08 18:58 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $7.69 15.37 coins $9,318 18,637 coins 1,213x 2026-11-07 23:42 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $7.69 15.37 coins $9,318 18,637 coins 1,213x 2026-11-07 11:57 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $7.69 15.37 coins $9,318 18,637 coins 1,213x 2026-11-06 21:20 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $7.69 15.37 coins $9,318 18,637 coins 1,213x 2026-11-06 08:16 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $7.69 15.37 coins $9,318 18,637 coins 1,213x 2026-11-05 03:42 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $7.69 15.37 coins $9,318 18,637 coins 1,213x 2026-11-05 02:28 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) Hidden $7.69 15.37 coins $4,198 8,395 coins 546.2x 2026-11-10 22:16 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) Hidden $7.69 15.37 coins $4,198 8,395 coins 546.2x 2026-11-10 06:38 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) Hidden $7.69 15.37 coins $4,198 8,395 coins 546.2x 2026-11-09 02:38 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=1-awp) [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $7.69 15.37 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:20 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $7.69 15.37 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:20 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $7.69 15.37 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:20 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $7.69 15.37 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:20 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $7.69 15.37 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:20 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $7.69 15.37 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:20 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $7.69 15.37 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:20 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) [Tomex](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Tomex) $7.69 15.37 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:20 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $7.69 15.37 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:20 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $7.69 15.37 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:20 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $7.69 | 89.98% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.4% Restricted 0.3% Classified 0.3% consumer 99.0% best hit $9,318 (1,213x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt