--- title: "1% Flasher case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "1% Flasher ($15.10) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.97% from 10 items with odds, observed 84.22% over 5,373 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/1-flasher rendered: 2026-11-11T15:51Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [1% Flasher](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/1-flasher) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · 1% Flasher A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/1-flasher?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/1-flasher?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/1-flasher) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/1-flasher?window=all) Price · $15.10 · 30.2 coins Advertised RTP · 89.97% · EV $13.59 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 84.22% · 5,373 openings, odds method Variance · 83.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 200 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 512 openings · below min 7 days · 78.26% ±27.94 4,123 openings 30 days · 84.22% ±24.47 5,373 openings since tracking started · 84.22% ±24.47 5,373 openings 49.5% 143.0% 236.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/1-flasher?window=24h) | 512 | 156.66% ±79.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/1-flasher?window=7d) | 4,123 | 78.26% ±27.9 | −0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/1-flasher) | 5,373 | 84.22% ±24.5 | −0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/1-flasher?window=all) | 5,373 | 84.22% ±24.5 | −0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,373 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $1,661 3,323 coins | 30.6% | 11 | 13.4 | 0.82× | | [MP9 \| Wild Lily (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $1,638 3,277 coins | 30.1% | 13 | 13.4 | 0.97× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Smoke Out (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-smoke-out-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $1,125 2,251 coins | 20.7% | 13 | 13.4 | 0.97× | | [Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-battle-scarred) | 1 in 400 | $1,002 2,005 coins | 18.4% | 14 | 13.4 | 1.04× | | [AUG \| Sweeper (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sweeper-minimal-wear) | 16.0% | $0.03 0.05 coins | 0.0% | 897 | 859.7 | 1.04× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Distressed (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-field-tested) | 16.0% | $0.03 0.05 coins | 0.0% | 853 | 859.7 | 0.99× | | [MP9 \| Orange Peel (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-orange-peel-field-tested) | 16.0% | $0.03 0.05 coins | 0.0% | 858 | 859.7 | 1.00× | | [MP5-SD \| Dirt Drop (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-dirt-drop-field-tested) | 17.0% | $0.01 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 898 | 913.4 | 0.98× | | [Dual Berettas \| Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-colony-field-tested) | 17.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 922 | 913.4 | 1.01× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 17.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 894 | 913.4 | 0.98× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-minimal-wear) Hidden $15.10 30.2 coins $1,661 3,323 coins 110.0x 2026-11-10 20:49 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-minimal-wear) [EliteLynx4233](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/EliteLynx4233) $15.10 30.2 coins $1,661 3,323 coins 110.0x 2026-11-10 18:58 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-minimal-wear) Hidden $15.10 30.2 coins $1,661 3,323 coins 110.0x 2026-11-10 05:58 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-minimal-wear) Hidden $15.10 30.2 coins $1,661 3,323 coins 110.0x 2026-11-07 07:39 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-minimal-wear) Hidden $15.10 30.2 coins $1,661 3,323 coins 110.0x 2026-11-06 08:02 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-minimal-wear) Hidden $15.10 30.2 coins $1,661 3,323 coins 110.0x 2026-11-05 23:25 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-minimal-wear) Hidden $15.10 30.2 coins $1,661 3,323 coins 110.0x 2026-11-05 08:22 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-minimal-wear) Hidden $15.10 30.2 coins $1,661 3,323 coins 110.0x 2026-11-04 03:10 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-minimal-wear) Hidden $15.10 30.2 coins $1,661 3,323 coins 110.0x 2026-11-03 19:11 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-minimal-wear) Hidden $15.10 30.2 coins $1,661 3,323 coins 110.0x 2026-11-03 06:19 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=1-flasher) [MP5-SD | Dirt Drop (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-dirt-drop-field-tested) Hidden $15.10 30.2 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:44 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-field-tested) Hidden $15.10 30.2 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:44 UTC [Dual Berettas | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $15.10 30.2 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:44 UTC [MP9 | Orange Peel (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-orange-peel-field-tested) Hidden $15.10 30.2 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:44 UTC [MP9 | Orange Peel (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-orange-peel-field-tested) Hidden $15.10 30.2 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:44 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-field-tested) Hidden $15.10 30.2 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:44 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-field-tested) Hidden $15.10 30.2 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:44 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) [prudent](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/prudent) $15.10 30.2 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:44 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $15.10 30.2 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $15.10 30.2 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $15.10 | 89.97% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.5% classified 0.3% extraordinary 0.3% Common 16.0% #4b69ff 33.0% industrial 16.0% Consumer Grade 17.0% #777777 17.0% best hit $1,661 (110.0x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.97 on average: an expected loss of $10.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt