--- title: "1 in 10 Loot case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "1 in 10 Loot ($77.66) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 109.88% over 24 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/1-in-10-loot rendered: 2026-11-12T03:26Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [1 in 10 Loot](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/1-in-10-loot) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · 1 in 10 Loot A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/1-in-10-loot?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/1-in-10-loot?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/1-in-10-loot) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/1-in-10-loot?window=all) Price · $77.66 · 155 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $69.89 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 109.88% · 24 openings, odds method Variance · 1.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 16.7% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 12 openings · below min 30 days · 24 openings · below min since tracking started · 24 openings · below min 39.0% 108.0% 177.0% **Small sample.** 24 openings and 4.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/1-in-10-loot?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/1-in-10-loot?window=7d) | 12 | 107.86% ±68.4 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/1-in-10-loot) | 24 | 109.88% ±48.3 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/1-in-10-loot?window=all) | 24 | 109.88% ±48.3 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 24 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $1,258 2,517 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,006 2,012 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 1,429 | $755 1,511 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $503 1,006 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Night (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-night-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $252 504 coins | 29.2% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.54× | | [Souvenir SSG 08 \| Acid Fade (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-acid-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $197 395 coins | 23.5% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.00× | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 12 | $183 367 coins | 21.8% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.00× | | [Souvenir AUG \| Storm (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-aug-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $75.66 151 coins | 9.0% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.50× | | [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $35.33 70.65 coins | 4.2% | 4 | 2.0 | 2.00× | | [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $34.73 69.46 coins | 4.1% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.50× | | [Galil AR \| Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-amber-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $15.86 31.71 coins | 1.9% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.00× | | [G3SG1 \| Demeter (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-demeter-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $9.21 18.42 coins | 1.1% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.50× | | [AWP \| Atheris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $7.71 15.42 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00× | | [AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $5.10 10.2 coins | 0.6% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.50× | | [MP7 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $2.67 5.34 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00× | | [Nova \| Moon in Libra (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $2.55 5.09 coins | 0.3% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.50× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 12 Nov, 02:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=1-in-10-loot) [M4A4 | Hellfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-minimal-wear) Hidden $77.66 155 coins $34.73 69.46 coins 0.45x 2026-11-09 22:52 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Night (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-night-factory-new) Hidden $77.66 155 coins $252 504 coins 3.24x 2026-11-09 22:52 UTC [M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) Hidden $77.66 155 coins $35.33 70.65 coins 0.45x 2026-11-09 22:52 UTC [Souvenir SSG 08 | Acid Fade (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-acid-fade-factory-new) [caze](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/caze) $77.66 155 coins $197 395 coins 2.54x 2026-11-09 22:52 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Night (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-night-factory-new) Hidden $77.66 155 coins $252 504 coins 3.24x 2026-11-09 22:52 UTC [M4A4 | Hellfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-minimal-wear) Hidden $77.66 155 coins $34.73 69.46 coins 0.45x 2026-11-09 22:52 UTC [M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) Hidden $77.66 155 coins $35.33 70.65 coins 0.45x 2026-11-09 22:52 UTC [Nova | Moon in Libra (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-factory-new) [caze](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/caze) $77.66 155 coins $2.55 5.09 coins 0.03x 2026-11-09 22:52 UTC [M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) Hidden $77.66 155 coins $35.33 70.65 coins 0.45x 2026-11-09 22:52 UTC [M4A4 | Hellfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-minimal-wear) Hidden $77.66 155 coins $34.73 69.46 coins 0.45x 2026-11-09 22:52 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $77.66 | 90.00% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 25.1% other 0.1% Covert 8.1% mil spec 16.7% Consumer Grade 8.3% classified 16.7% Mil Spec Grade 8.3% restricted 8.3% consumer 8.3% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt