---
title: "1 In A Million case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "1 In A Million ($0.44) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.60% from 18 items with odds, observed 89.17% over 27.3K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/1-in-a-million
rendered: 2026-11-12T01:14Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [1 In A Million](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/1-in-a-million)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · 1 In A Million

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/1-in-a-million?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/1-in-a-million?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/1-in-a-million) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/1-in-a-million?window=all)

Price · $0.44 · 0.87 coins

Advertised RTP · 89.60% · EV $0.39 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.17% · 27.3K openings, odds method

Variance · 72.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 41 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 88.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 81.26% ±31.60 2,778 openings

7 days · 90.13% ±10.87 23.5K openings

30 days · 89.17% ±10.08 27.3K openings

since tracking started · 89.17% ±10.08 27.3K openings

49.0% 81.3% 113.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/1-in-a-million?window=24h) | 2,778 | 81.26% ±31.6 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/1-in-a-million?window=7d) | 23.5K | 90.13% ±10.9 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/1-in-a-million) | 27.3K | 89.17% ±10.1 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/1-in-a-million?window=all) | 27.3K | 89.17% ±10.1 | −0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 27.3K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $3,107 6,214 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Orange Anolis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orange-anolis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $61.68 123 coins | 1.6% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.73× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $56.39 113 coins | 1.4% | 6 | 2.7 | 2.20× |
| [UMP-45 \| Crime Scene (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crime-scene-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $54.87 110 coins | 1.4% | 4 | 2.7 | 1.46× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $31.27 62.54 coins | 4.0% | 14 | 13.7 | 1.03× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $29.87 59.74 coins | 3.8% | 12 | 13.7 | 0.88× |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $29.36 58.71 coins | 3.8% | 10 | 13.7 | 0.73× |
| [MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-propaganda-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $27.81 55.62 coins | 3.6% | 17 | 13.7 | 1.25× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $13.79 27.57 coins | 3.5% | 31 | 27.3 | 1.14× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $13.47 26.94 coins | 3.5% | 28 | 27.3 | 1.03× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $6.79 13.57 coins | 4.4% | 60 | 68.3 | 0.88× |
| [MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-nuclear-garden-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $6.71 13.42 coins | 4.3% | 69 | 68.3 | 1.01× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $6.11 12.21 coins | 7.8% | 142 | 136.5 | 1.04× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $5.23 10.45 coins | 13.4% | 252 | 273.1 | 0.92× |
| [UMP-45 \| Momentum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $2.78 5.56 coins | 14.3% | 550 | 546.2 | 1.01× |
| [SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $2.72 5.44 coins | 14.0% | 540 | 546.2 | 0.99× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $1.04 2.08 coins | 13.3% | 1,320 | 1365.4 | 0.97× |
| [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 88.6% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 1.1% | 24,251 | 24186.7 | 1.00× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[USP-S | Orange Anolis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orange-anolis-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.43 0.87 coins $61.68 123 coins 141.8x 2026-11-05 21:28 UTC

[USP-S | Orange Anolis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orange-anolis-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.43 0.87 coins $61.68 123 coins 141.8x 2026-11-05 19:26 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-candy-apple-factory-new) Hidden $0.43 0.87 coins $56.39 113 coins 129.6x 2026-11-12 00:48 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-candy-apple-factory-new) Hidden $0.43 0.87 coins $56.39 113 coins 129.6x 2026-11-10 14:07 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-candy-apple-factory-new) Hidden $0.43 0.87 coins $56.39 113 coins 129.6x 2026-11-10 13:57 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-candy-apple-factory-new) Hidden $0.43 0.87 coins $56.39 113 coins 129.6x 2026-11-10 13:46 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-candy-apple-factory-new) Hidden $0.43 0.87 coins $56.39 113 coins 129.6x 2026-11-08 18:43 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-candy-apple-factory-new) Hidden $0.43 0.87 coins $56.39 113 coins 129.6x 2026-11-05 19:23 UTC

[UMP-45 | Crime Scene (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crime-scene-factory-new) [Elporto91](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Elporto91) $0.43 0.87 coins $54.87 110 coins 126.1x 2026-11-10 14:03 UTC

[UMP-45 | Crime Scene (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crime-scene-factory-new) Hidden $0.43 0.87 coins $54.87 110 coins 126.1x 2026-11-08 01:00 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=1-in-a-million)

[P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.43 0.87 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-12 00:48 UTC

[P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.43 0.87 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-12 00:48 UTC

[P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.43 0.87 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-12 00:48 UTC

[P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.43 0.87 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-12 00:48 UTC

[P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.43 0.87 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-12 00:48 UTC

[P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.43 0.87 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-12 00:48 UTC

[M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) Hidden $0.43 0.87 coins $1.04 2.08 coins 2.39x 2026-11-12 00:48 UTC

[P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) [LukinhaSz777](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/LukinhaSz777) $0.43 0.87 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-12 00:48 UTC

[P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.43 0.87 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-12 00:47 UTC

[P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.43 0.87 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-12 00:47 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.43 | 89.60% | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.2% Mythical 5.0% Industrial Grade 0.0% violet 0.0% classified 3.9% restricted 0.1% mil spec 0.3% #d32ee6 2.0% #4b69ff 88.6% best hit $61.68 (141.8x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.60 on average: an expected loss of $10.40 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt