--- title: "1% JACKPOT case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "1% JACKPOT ($33.50) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 78.85% over 2,883 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/1-jackpot rendered: 2026-11-11T17:03Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [1% JACKPOT](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/1-jackpot) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · 1% JACKPOT A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/1-jackpot?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/1-jackpot?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/1-jackpot) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/1-jackpot?window=all) Price · $33.50 · 66.99 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $30.14 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 78.85% · 2,883 openings, odds method Variance · 81.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 200 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 472 openings · below min 7 days · 64.99% ±36.48 2,347 openings 30 days · 78.85% ±32.91 2,883 openings since tracking started · 78.85% ±32.91 2,883 openings -0.5% 67.8% 136.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/1-jackpot?window=24h) | 472 | 54.23% ±81.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/1-jackpot?window=7d) | 2,347 | 64.99% ±36.5 | −1.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/1-jackpot) | 2,883 | 78.85% ±32.9 | −0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/1-jackpot?window=all) | 2,883 | 78.85% ±32.9 | −0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,883 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Charm \| Baby Karat T charm · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-baby-karat-t) | 1 in 400 | $3,485 6,970 coins | 28.9% | 7 | 7.2 | 0.97× | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 400 | $3,187 6,373 coins | 26.4% | 6 | 7.2 | 0.83× | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 400 | $2,845 5,691 coins | 23.6% | 7 | 7.2 | 0.97× | | [Sticker \| Ninjas in Pyjamas (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ninjas-in-pyjamas-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 400 | $2,539 5,078 coins | 21.1% | 5 | 7.2 | 0.69× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 217 | 230.6 | 0.94× | | [FAMAS \| Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 229 | 230.6 | 0.99× | | [FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 237 | 230.6 | 1.03× | | [G3SG1 \| VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 249 | 230.6 | 1.08× | | [MAG-7 \| Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 251 | 230.6 | 1.09× | | [P250 \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 249 | 230.6 | 1.08× | | [XM1014 \| Blue Spruce (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-spruce-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 223 | 230.6 | 0.97× | | [AUG \| Sweeper (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sweeper-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 208 | 230.6 | 0.90× | | [MP9 \| Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 241 | 230.6 | 1.04× | | [SG 553 \| Aloha (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 258 | 259.5 | 0.99× | | [SG 553 \| Army Sheen (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-army-sheen-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 264 | 259.5 | 1.02× | | [P2000 \| Granite Marbleized (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-granite-marbleized-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 232 | 259.5 | 0.89× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Charm | Baby Karat T charm · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-baby-karat-t) Hidden $33.50 66.99 coins $3,485 6,970 coins 104.0x 2026-11-10 10:19 UTC [Charm | Baby Karat T charm · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-baby-karat-t) Hidden $33.50 66.99 coins $3,485 6,970 coins 104.0x 2026-11-08 22:54 UTC [Charm | Baby Karat T charm · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-baby-karat-t) Hidden $33.50 66.99 coins $3,485 6,970 coins 104.0x 2026-11-08 15:51 UTC [Charm | Baby Karat T charm · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-baby-karat-t) Hidden $33.50 66.99 coins $3,485 6,970 coins 104.0x 2026-11-04 17:19 UTC [Charm | Baby Karat T charm · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-baby-karat-t) Hidden $33.50 66.99 coins $3,485 6,970 coins 104.0x 2026-11-04 16:39 UTC [Charm | Baby Karat T charm · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-baby-karat-t) Hidden $33.50 66.99 coins $3,485 6,970 coins 104.0x 2026-11-03 14:18 UTC [Charm | Baby Karat T charm · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-baby-karat-t) Hidden $33.50 66.99 coins $3,485 6,970 coins 104.0x 2026-11-03 14:17 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $33.50 66.99 coins $3,187 6,373 coins 95.14x 2026-11-10 21:31 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $33.50 66.99 coins $3,187 6,373 coins 95.14x 2026-11-10 10:20 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $33.50 66.99 coins $3,187 6,373 coins 95.14x 2026-11-06 23:13 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=1-jackpot) [MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) Hidden $33.50 66.99 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC [P2000 | Granite Marbleized (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-granite-marbleized-field-tested) Hidden $33.50 66.99 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $33.50 66.99 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $33.50 66.99 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC [SG 553 | Aloha (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-field-tested) Hidden $33.50 66.99 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC [SG 553 | Army Sheen (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-army-sheen-factory-new) Hidden $33.50 66.99 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $33.50 66.99 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) [BG2x](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/BG2x) $33.50 66.99 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC [P2000 | Granite Marbleized (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-granite-marbleized-field-tested) Hidden $33.50 66.99 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:30 UTC [P2000 | Granite Marbleized (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-granite-marbleized-field-tested) Hidden $33.50 66.99 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:30 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $33.50 | 90.00% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed #eb4b4b 0.3% covert 0.3% #EB4B4B 0.3% remarkable 0.3% #4b69ff 16.0% consumer 33.0% industrial 17.0% Consumer Grade 8.0% Common 8.0% milspec 8.0% blue 9.0% best hit $3,485 (104.0x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt