--- title: "10% Bust or Win case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "10% Bust or Win ($91.60) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 45.90% over 104 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/10-bust-or-win rendered: 2026-11-12T14:02Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [10% Bust or Win](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/10-bust-or-win) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · 10% Bust or Win A case on Chicken.gg, first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/10-bust-or-win?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/10-bust-or-win?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/10-bust-or-win) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/10-bust-or-win?window=all) Price · $91.60 · 183 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 45.90% · 104 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 7 days · 104 openings · below min 30 days · 104 openings · below min since tracking started · 104 openings · below min 6.0% 45.8% 85.5% **Small sample.** 104 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/10-bust-or-win?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/10-bust-or-win?window=7d) | 104 | 45.90% ±39.1 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/10-bust-or-win) | 104 | 45.90% ±39.1 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/10-bust-or-win?window=all) | 104 | 45.90% ±39.1 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Chicken.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $91.60 183 coins $1,520 3,040 coins 16.59x 2026-11-09 14:46 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $91.60 183 coins $870 1,740 coins 9.50x 2026-11-09 14:42 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) Hidden $91.60 183 coins $531 1,062 coins 5.80x 2026-11-09 14:42 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=10-bust-or-win) [SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-mainframe-001-field-tested) [crazies](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/crazies) $91.60 183 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 14:45 UTC [SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-mainframe-001-field-tested) Hidden $91.60 183 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 14:45 UTC [SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-mainframe-001-field-tested) Hidden $91.60 183 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 14:45 UTC [SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-mainframe-001-field-tested) Hidden $91.60 183 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 14:45 UTC [SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-mainframe-001-field-tested) Hidden $91.60 183 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 14:45 UTC [SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-mainframe-001-field-tested) Hidden $91.60 183 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 14:45 UTC [SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-mainframe-001-field-tested) Hidden $91.60 183 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 14:45 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $91.60 183 coins $1,520 3,040 coins 16.59x 2026-11-09 14:45 UTC [SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-mainframe-001-field-tested) Hidden $91.60 183 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 14:44 UTC [SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-mainframe-001-field-tested) Hidden $91.60 183 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 14:44 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $1,520 (16.59x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 45.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $45.90 on average: an expected loss of $54.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt