--- title: "10% Fortune case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "10% Fortune ($26.94) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 10 items with odds, observed 86.16% over 3,378 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/10-fortune rendered: 2026-11-11T17:39Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [10% Fortune](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/10-fortune) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · 10% Fortune A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/10-fortune?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/10-fortune?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/10-fortune) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/10-fortune?window=all) Price · $26.94 · 53.88 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $24.24 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 86.16% · 3,378 openings, odds method Variance · 21.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 80 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 187 openings · below min 7 days · 84.11% ±17.44 2,742 openings 30 days · 86.16% ±15.71 3,378 openings since tracking started · 86.16% ±15.71 3,378 openings 6.0% 73.5% 141.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/10-fortune?window=24h) | 187 | 73.35% ±66.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/10-fortune?window=7d) | 2,742 | 84.11% ±17.4 | −0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/10-fortune) | 3,378 | 86.16% ±15.7 | −0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/10-fortune?window=all) | 3,378 | 86.16% ±15.7 | −0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,378 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 400 | $1,197 2,393 coins | 12.3% | 11 | 8.4 | 1.30× | | [★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $1,129 2,258 coins | 11.6% | 11 | 8.4 | 1.30× | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 400 | $1,119 2,238 coins | 11.5% | 6 | 8.4 | 0.71× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 400 | $1,022 2,043 coins | 10.5% | 5 | 8.4 | 0.59× | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 400 | $1,012 2,023 coins | 10.4% | 9 | 8.4 | 1.07× | | [AK-47 \| Jaguar (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $127 253 coins | 13.1% | 85 | 84.5 | 1.01× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 44 | $120 240 coins | 11.1% | 60 | 76.0 | 0.79× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $117 235 coins | 9.7% | 58 | 67.6 | 0.86× | | [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $117 234 coins | 9.6% | 61 | 67.6 | 0.90× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 90.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 3,072 | 3040.2 | 1.01× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $26.94 53.88 coins $1,197 2,393 coins 44.42x 2026-11-09 02:49 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $26.94 53.88 coins $1,197 2,393 coins 44.42x 2026-11-08 21:13 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $26.94 53.88 coins $1,197 2,393 coins 44.42x 2026-11-05 19:01 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $26.94 53.88 coins $1,197 2,393 coins 44.42x 2026-11-05 15:37 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $26.94 53.88 coins $1,197 2,393 coins 44.42x 2026-11-05 10:52 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $26.94 53.88 coins $1,197 2,393 coins 44.42x 2026-11-05 05:46 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $26.94 53.88 coins $1,197 2,393 coins 44.42x 2026-11-05 01:04 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $26.94 53.88 coins $1,197 2,393 coins 44.42x 2026-11-04 08:51 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $26.94 53.88 coins $1,197 2,393 coins 44.42x 2026-11-04 03:18 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $26.94 53.88 coins $1,197 2,393 coins 44.42x 2026-11-03 13:35 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=10-fortune) [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $26.94 53.88 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:54 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $26.94 53.88 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:54 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $26.94 53.88 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:54 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $26.94 53.88 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:54 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $26.94 53.88 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:54 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) [Sorhex](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Sorhex) $26.94 53.88 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:54 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $26.94 53.88 coins $120 240 coins 4.45x 2026-11-11 16:54 UTC [AK-47 | Jaguar (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-factory-new) Hidden $26.94 53.88 coins $127 253 coins 4.70x 2026-11-11 16:54 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $26.94 53.88 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:52 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $26.94 53.88 coins $120 240 coins 4.45x 2026-11-11 16:52 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $26.94 | 89.99% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 9.8% Covert 0.3% #4b69ff 90.0% best hit $1,197 (44.42x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt