--- title: "10% KNIFE LUCK case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "10% KNIFE LUCK ($2.48) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 81.77% over 234 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/10-knife-luck rendered: 2026-11-11T19:19Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [10% KNIFE LUCK](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/10-knife-luck) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · 10% KNIFE LUCK A case on Chicken.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/10-knife-luck?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/10-knife-luck?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/10-knife-luck) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/10-knife-luck?window=all) Price · $2.48 · 4.96 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 81.77% · 234 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 38 openings · below min 7 days · 202 openings · below min 30 days · 234 openings · below min since tracking started · 234 openings · below min 3.5% 69.8% 136.0% **Small sample.** 234 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/10-knife-luck?window=24h) | 38 | 22.97% ±18.6 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/10-knife-luck?window=7d) | 202 | 84.42% ±50.8 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/10-knife-luck) | 234 | 81.77% ±45.2 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/10-knife-luck?window=all) | 234 | 81.77% ±45.2 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Chicken.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=10-knife-luck) [Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $2.48 4.96 coins $0.15 0.3 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:51 UTC [Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $2.48 4.96 coins $0.15 0.3 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:51 UTC [Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $2.48 4.96 coins $0.15 0.3 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:51 UTC [Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $2.48 4.96 coins $0.15 0.3 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:51 UTC [Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $2.48 4.96 coins $0.15 0.3 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:51 UTC [Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $2.48 4.96 coins $0.15 0.3 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:51 UTC [Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $2.48 4.96 coins $0.15 0.3 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:51 UTC [Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-factory-new) [HAL](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/HAL) $2.48 4.96 coins $0.15 0.3 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:51 UTC [Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $2.48 4.96 coins $0.15 0.3 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:51 UTC [Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $2.48 4.96 coins $0.15 0.3 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:51 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 81.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $81.77 on average: an expected loss of $18.23 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt