--- title: "10% Nebula case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "10% Nebula ($5.00) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 65.68% over 1,132 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/10-nebula rendered: 2026-11-12T07:00Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [10% Nebula](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/10-nebula) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · 10% Nebula A case on Chicken.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/10-nebula?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/10-nebula?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/10-nebula) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/10-nebula?window=all) Price · $5.00 · 10 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 65.68% · 1,132 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 170 openings · below min 7 days · 682 openings · below min 30 days · 65.68% ±17.20 1,132 openings since tracking started · 65.68% ±17.20 1,132 openings 22.5% 53.0% 83.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/10-nebula?window=24h) | 170 | 48.59% ±25.6 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/10-nebula?window=7d) | 682 | 44.52% ±13.7 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/10-nebula) | 1,132 | 65.68% ±17.2 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/10-nebula?window=all) | 1,132 | 65.68% ±17.2 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Chicken.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=10-nebula) [Souvenir Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-groundwater-factory-new) Hidden $5.00 10 coins $50.13 100 coins 10.03x 2026-11-11 18:23 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) [GrimSnipe8171](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/GrimSnipe8171) $5.00 10 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:23 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 10 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:23 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 10 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:23 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 10 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:23 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 10 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:23 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 10 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:23 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 10 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:23 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 10 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:23 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) [GrimSnipe8171](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/GrimSnipe8171) $5.00 10 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:23 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 65.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $65.68 on average: an expected loss of $34.32 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt