--- title: "100x Or Bust case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "100x Or Bust ($0.52) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.84% from 8 items with odds, observed 73.08% over 18.5K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/100x-or-bust rendered: 2026-11-11T19:17Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [100x Or Bust](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/100x-or-bust) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · 100x Or Bust A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/100x-or-bust?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/100x-or-bust?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/100x-or-bust) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/100x-or-bust?window=all) Price · $0.52 · 1.03 coins Advertised RTP · 89.84% · EV $0.46 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 73.08% · 18.5K openings, odds method Variance · 83.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 118 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 98.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 480 openings · below min 7 days · 71.77% ±15.48 13.4K openings 30 days · 73.08% ±13.21 18.5K openings since tracking started · 73.08% ±13.21 18.5K openings 7.5% 90.0% 172.5% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 89.84% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (59.87% – 86.28%, 18,452 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/100x-or-bust?window=24h) | 480 | 89.93% ±81.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/100x-or-bust?window=7d) | 13.4K | 71.77% ±15.5 | −2.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/100x-or-bust) | 18.5K | 73.08% ±13.2 | −2.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/100x-or-bust?window=all) | 18.5K | 73.08% ±13.2 | −2.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18.5K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-death-strike-well-worn) | 1 in 118 | $51.37 103 coins | 94.4% | 126 | 156.8 | 0.80× | | [SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-factory-new) | 1 in 118 | $1.04 2.07 coins | 1.9% | 145 | 156.8 | 0.92× | | [G3SG1 \| Polar Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-polar-camo-field-tested) | 16.5% | $0.03 0.06 coins | 1.1% | 3,100 | 3044.6 | 1.02× | | [SSG 08 \| Mainframe 001 (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-mainframe-001-field-tested) | 16.5% | $0.03 0.05 coins | 0.9% | 3,134 | 3044.6 | 1.03× | | [G3SG1 \| Hunter (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-hunter-field-tested) | 16.5% | $0.02 0.04 coins | 0.7% | 2,983 | 3044.6 | 0.98× | | [SCAR-20 \| Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-contractor-field-tested) | 16.5% | $0.01 0.03 coins | 0.5% | 3,164 | 3044.6 | 1.04× | | [SCAR-20 \| Contractor (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-contractor-factory-new) | 16.5% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.4% | 2,961 | 3044.6 | 0.97× | | [G3SG1 \| VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) | 15.8% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.2% | 2,839 | 2915.4 | 0.97× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Souvenir SSG 08 | Death Strike (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-death-strike-well-worn) Hidden $0.52 1.03 coins $51.37 103 coins 99.74x 2026-11-11 18:09 UTC [Souvenir SSG 08 | Death Strike (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-death-strike-well-worn) Hidden $0.52 1.03 coins $51.37 103 coins 99.74x 2026-11-11 16:14 UTC [Souvenir SSG 08 | Death Strike (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-death-strike-well-worn) Hidden $0.52 1.03 coins $51.37 103 coins 99.74x 2026-11-11 14:59 UTC [Souvenir SSG 08 | Death Strike (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-death-strike-well-worn) Hidden $0.52 1.03 coins $51.37 103 coins 99.74x 2026-11-11 04:39 UTC [Souvenir SSG 08 | Death Strike (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-death-strike-well-worn) Hidden $0.52 1.03 coins $51.37 103 coins 99.74x 2026-11-10 05:42 UTC [Souvenir SSG 08 | Death Strike (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-death-strike-well-worn) Hidden $0.52 1.03 coins $51.37 103 coins 99.74x 2026-11-10 00:44 UTC [Souvenir SSG 08 | Death Strike (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-death-strike-well-worn) Hidden $0.52 1.03 coins $51.37 103 coins 99.74x 2026-11-10 00:42 UTC [Souvenir SSG 08 | Death Strike (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-death-strike-well-worn) Hidden $0.52 1.03 coins $51.37 103 coins 99.74x 2026-11-10 00:42 UTC [Souvenir SSG 08 | Death Strike (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-death-strike-well-worn) Hidden $0.52 1.03 coins $51.37 103 coins 99.74x 2026-11-10 00:42 UTC [Souvenir SSG 08 | Death Strike (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-death-strike-well-worn) Hidden $0.52 1.03 coins $51.37 103 coins 99.74x 2026-11-10 00:42 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=100x-or-bust) [G3SG1 | Polar Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-polar-camo-field-tested) Hidden $0.52 1.03 coins $0.03 0.06 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC [SCAR-20 | Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-contractor-field-tested) Hidden $0.52 1.03 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC [G3SG1 | Hunter (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-hunter-field-tested) [oskandle](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/oskandle) $0.52 1.03 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC [SCAR-20 | Contractor (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-contractor-factory-new) Hidden $0.52 1.03 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC [G3SG1 | Polar Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-polar-camo-field-tested) Hidden $0.52 1.03 coins $0.03 0.06 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC [G3SG1 | Polar Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-polar-camo-field-tested) Hidden $0.52 1.03 coins $0.03 0.06 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC [G3SG1 | Hunter (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-hunter-field-tested) Hidden $0.52 1.03 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC [SCAR-20 | Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-contractor-field-tested) Hidden $0.52 1.03 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC [SCAR-20 | Contractor (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-contractor-factory-new) Hidden $0.52 1.03 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:36 UTC [SCAR-20 | Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-contractor-field-tested) Hidden $0.52 1.03 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:36 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.52 | 89.84% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 0.9% restricted 0.9% consumer 49.5% milspec 16.5% blue 16.5% industrial 15.8% best hit $51.37 (99.74x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.84 on average: an expected loss of $10.16 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt