--- title: "1.3 Asiimov case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "1.3 Asiimov ($0.65) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.39% from 8 items with odds, observed 95.34% over 10.5K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/13-asiimov rendered: 2026-11-11T22:46Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [1.3 Asiimov](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/13-asiimov) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · 1.3 Asiimov A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/13-asiimov?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/13-asiimov?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/13-asiimov) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/13-asiimov?window=all) Price · $0.65 · 1.3 coins Advertised RTP · 89.39% · EV $0.58 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 95.34% · 10.5K openings, odds method Variance · 29.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 54 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 73.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 101.53% ±33.84 979 openings 7 days · 95.86% ±11.61 8,322 openings 30 days · 95.34% ±10.33 10.5K openings since tracking started · 95.34% ±10.33 10.5K openings 67.0% 101.5% 136.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/13-asiimov?window=24h) | 979 | 101.53% ±33.8 | +0.7σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/13-asiimov?window=7d) | 8,322 | 95.86% ±11.6 | +1.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/13-asiimov) | 10.5K | 95.34% ±10.3 | +1.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/13-asiimov?window=all) | 10.5K | 95.34% ±10.3 | +1.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.5K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $89.12 178 coins | 15.3% | 16 | 10.5 | 1.52× | | [SSG 08 \| Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sand-dune-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $25.86 51.71 coins | 11.1% | 27 | 26.3 | 1.03× | | [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 133 | $13.86 27.72 coins | 17.9% | 88 | 78.8 | 1.12× | | [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $13.85 27.7 coins | 17.9% | 62 | 78.8 | 0.79× | | [SSG 08 \| Hand Brake (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-hand-brake-factory-new) | 24.9% | $0.84 1.68 coins | 36.1% | 2,623 | 2621.7 | 1.00× | | [SSG 08 \| Mainframe 001 (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-mainframe-001-field-tested) | 25.0% | $0.03 0.05 coins | 1.1% | 2,669 | 2627.0 | 1.02× | | [R8 Revolver \| Bone Forged (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-bone-forged-field-tested) | 25.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.4% | 2,652 | 2627.0 | 1.01× | | [P250 \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) | 23.2% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.2% | 2,371 | 2437.9 | 0.97× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) Hidden $0.65 1.3 coins $89.12 178 coins 137.1x 2026-11-11 04:54 UTC [AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) Hidden $0.65 1.3 coins $89.12 178 coins 137.1x 2026-11-10 23:30 UTC [AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) Hidden $0.65 1.3 coins $89.12 178 coins 137.1x 2026-11-10 15:35 UTC [AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) Hidden $0.65 1.3 coins $89.12 178 coins 137.1x 2026-11-10 13:52 UTC [AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) Hidden $0.65 1.3 coins $89.12 178 coins 137.1x 2026-11-10 00:07 UTC [AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) Hidden $0.65 1.3 coins $89.12 178 coins 137.1x 2026-11-09 23:19 UTC [AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) Hidden $0.65 1.3 coins $89.12 178 coins 137.1x 2026-11-09 17:32 UTC [AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) Hidden $0.65 1.3 coins $89.12 178 coins 137.1x 2026-11-09 03:47 UTC [AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) [comidoft](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/comidoft) $0.65 1.3 coins $89.12 178 coins 137.1x 2026-11-09 03:38 UTC [AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) [SolidRidge0798](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/SolidRidge0798) $0.65 1.3 coins $89.12 178 coins 137.1x 2026-11-08 18:50 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=13-asiimov) [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $0.65 1.3 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 22:21 UTC [SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-mainframe-001-field-tested) Hidden $0.65 1.3 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 22:21 UTC [SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-mainframe-001-field-tested) Hidden $0.65 1.3 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 22:21 UTC [SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-mainframe-001-field-tested) [SteelWolf6538](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/SteelWolf6538) $0.65 1.3 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 22:21 UTC [R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-bone-forged-field-tested) Hidden $0.65 1.3 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 22:21 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $0.65 1.3 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 22:21 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $0.65 1.3 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 22:21 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) [SteelWolf6538](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/SteelWolf6538) $0.65 1.3 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 22:21 UTC [SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-mainframe-001-field-tested) Hidden $0.65 1.3 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 22:21 UTC [R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-bone-forged-field-tested) Hidden $0.65 1.3 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 22:21 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.65 | 89.39% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.6% consumer 23.5% Rare 24.9% milspec 25.0% blue 25.0% best hit $89.12 (137.1x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.40 on average: an expected loss of $10.61 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt