---
title: "15% AWP case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "15% AWP ($46.13) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 104.07% over 1,649 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/15-awp
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:47Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [15% AWP](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/15-awp)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · 15% AWP

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/15-awp?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/15-awp?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/15-awp) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/15-awp?window=all)

Price · $46.13 · 92.25 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $41.51 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 104.07% · 1,649 openings, odds method

Variance · 10.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 16 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 86.13% ±36.02 314 openings

7 days · 93.96% ±17.63 1,311 openings

30 days · 104.07% ±15.72 1,649 openings

since tracking started · 104.07% ±15.72 1,649 openings

49.5% 86.3% 123.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/15-awp?window=24h) | 314 | 86.13% ±36.0 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/15-awp?window=7d) | 1,311 | 93.96% ±17.6 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/15-awp) | 1,649 | 104.07% ±15.7 | +1.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/15-awp?window=all) | 1,649 | 104.07% ±15.7 | +1.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,649 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $9,355 18,710 coins | 2.3% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $4,198 8,395 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $3,086 6,171 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,792 5,584 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,012 4,025 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,266 2,533 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $721 1,442 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $639 1,278 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| BOOM (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-boom-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $557 1,113 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Souvenir AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-pink-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $424 847 coins | 10.2% | 22 | 16.5 | 1.33× |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $371 742 coins | 8.9% | 18 | 16.5 | 1.09× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Doodle Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-doodle-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $361 722 coins | 17.4% | 41 | 33.0 | 1.24× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Graphite (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-graphite-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $290 580 coins | 14.0% | 38 | 33.0 | 1.15× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-wildfire-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $236 472 coins | 17.1% | 43 | 49.5 | 0.87× |
| [AWP \| Silk Tiger (Factory New) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $182 364 coins | 25.7% | 98 | 96.8 | 1.01× |
| [FAMAS \| Cyanospatter (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-well-worn) | 85.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 1,388 | 1401.6 | 0.99× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | Gungnir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-factory-new) Hidden $46.13 92.25 coins $9,355 18,710 coins 202.8x 2026-11-03 13:32 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=15-awp)

[StatTrak™ AWP | Wildfire (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-wildfire-factory-new) Hidden $46.13 92.25 coins $236 472 coins 5.12x 2026-11-11 18:57 UTC

[FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-well-worn) Hidden $46.13 92.25 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:57 UTC

[FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-well-worn) Hidden $46.13 92.25 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:57 UTC

[FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-well-worn) Hidden $46.13 92.25 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:57 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Doodle Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-doodle-lore-factory-new) Hidden $46.13 92.25 coins $361 722 coins 7.83x 2026-11-11 18:57 UTC

[FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-well-worn) Hidden $46.13 92.25 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:57 UTC

[FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-well-worn) Hidden $46.13 92.25 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:57 UTC

[AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) [kai](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/kai) $46.13 92.25 coins $371 742 coins 8.05x 2026-11-11 18:57 UTC

[AWP | Silk Tiger (Factory New) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-factory-new) Hidden $46.13 92.25 coins $182 364 coins 3.94x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC

[FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-well-worn) Hidden $46.13 92.25 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $46.13 | 90.00% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 4.1% Classified 2.0% Restricted 1.0% other 2.0% #d32ee6 5.9% industrial 85.0% best hit $9,355 (202.8x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt