--- title: "15% Baller case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "15% Baller ($1,444.40) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 60.90% over 262 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/15-baller rendered: 2026-11-11T18:42Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [15% Baller](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/15-baller) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · 15% Baller A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/15-baller?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/15-baller?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/15-baller) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/15-baller?window=all) Price · $1,444.40 · 2,889 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $1,299.96 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 60.90% · 262 openings, odds method Variance · 9.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 8 openings · below min 7 days · 60.90% ±36.64 262 openings 30 days · 60.90% ±36.64 262 openings since tracking started · 60.90% ±36.64 262 openings -0.5% 130.5% 261.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/15-baller?window=24h) | 8 | 51.03% ±209.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/15-baller?window=7d) | 262 | 60.90% ±36.6 | −1.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/15-baller) | 262 | 60.90% ±36.6 | −1.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/15-baller?window=all) | 262 | 60.90% ±36.6 | −1.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 262 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Team LDLC.com (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 100 | $25.5K 51,019 coins | 19.6% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.38× | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $24.8K 49,625 coins | 19.1% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.76× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $18.7K 37,392 coins | 14.4% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.38× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $15.1K 30,112 coins | 11.6% | 0 | 2.6 | 0.00× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 100 | $8,079 16,159 coins | 6.2% | 4 | 2.6 | 1.53× | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $6,181 12,362 coins | 4.8% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.15× | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · Knives · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 100 | $5,893 11,786 coins | 4.5% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.15× | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 100 | $5,754 11,508 coins | 4.4% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.76× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $4,425 8,850 coins | 3.4% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.15× | | [Sticker \| kNgV- (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kngv-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 100 | $4,260 8,520 coins | 3.3% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.38× | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 100 | $3,326 6,652 coins | 2.6% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.15× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 100 | $2,468 4,935 coins | 1.9% | 6 | 2.6 | 2.29× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 100 | $2,340 4,679 coins | 1.8% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.76× | | [Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $1,661 3,323 coins | 1.3% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.15× | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,493 2,987 coins | 1.1% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.15× | | [P250 \| Nevermore (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-minimal-wear) | 85.0% | $0.49 0.98 coins | 0.0% | 225 | 222.7 | 1.01× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Sticker | Team LDLC.com (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $1,444 2,889 coins $25.5K 51,019 coins 17.66x 2026-11-04 19:44 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $1,444 2,889 coins $24.8K 49,625 coins 17.18x 2026-11-06 00:45 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $1,444 2,889 coins $24.8K 49,625 coins 17.18x 2026-11-05 22:01 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-factory-new) Hidden $1,444 2,889 coins $18.7K 37,392 coins 12.94x 2026-11-10 16:34 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $1,444 2,889 coins $8,079 16,159 coins 5.59x 2026-11-09 23:23 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [Ler1](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Ler1) $1,444 2,889 coins $8,079 16,159 coins 5.59x 2026-11-07 10:31 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $1,444 2,889 coins $8,079 16,159 coins 5.59x 2026-11-07 03:01 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $1,444 2,889 coins $8,079 16,159 coins 5.59x 2026-11-05 09:42 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) Hidden $1,444 2,889 coins $6,181 12,362 coins 4.28x 2026-11-10 16:34 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) Hidden $1,444 2,889 coins $6,181 12,362 coins 4.28x 2026-11-06 00:45 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=15-baller) [P250 | Nevermore (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-minimal-wear) Hidden $1,444 2,889 coins $0.49 0.98 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [P250 | Nevermore (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-minimal-wear) Hidden $1,444 2,889 coins $0.49 0.98 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [P250 | Nevermore (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-minimal-wear) Hidden $1,444 2,889 coins $0.49 0.98 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · Knives · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $1,444 2,889 coins $5,893 11,786 coins 4.08x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [P250 | Nevermore (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-minimal-wear) Hidden $1,444 2,889 coins $0.49 0.98 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [P250 | Nevermore (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-minimal-wear) Hidden $1,444 2,889 coins $0.49 0.98 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [P250 | Nevermore (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-minimal-wear) Hidden $1,444 2,889 coins $0.49 0.98 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [P250 | Nevermore (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-minimal-wear) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $1,444 2,889 coins $0.49 0.98 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-factory-new) Hidden $1,444 2,889 coins $18.7K 37,392 coins 12.94x 2026-11-10 16:34 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) Hidden $1,444 2,889 coins $6,181 12,362 coins 4.28x 2026-11-10 16:34 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1,444 | 90.00% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed remarkable 1.0% covert 8.0% extraordinary 3.0% Knives 1.0% knifes 1.0% legendary 1.0% restricted 85.0% best hit $25.5K (17.66x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt