--- title: "15% Galaxy Pistol case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "15% Galaxy Pistol ($6.99) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.96% from 16 items with odds, observed 89.70% over 4,845 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/15-galaxy-pistol rendered: 2026-11-12T05:50Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [15% Galaxy Pistol](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/15-galaxy-pistol) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · 15% Galaxy Pistol A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/15-galaxy-pistol?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/15-galaxy-pistol?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/15-galaxy-pistol) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/15-galaxy-pistol?window=all) Price · $6.99 · 13.97 coins Advertised RTP · 89.96% · EV $6.28 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.70% · 4,845 openings, odds method Variance · 8.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 28 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 93.07% ±36.76 248 openings 7 days · 91.52% ±9.85 3,451 openings 30 days · 89.70% ±8.32 4,845 openings since tracking started · 89.70% ±8.32 4,845 openings 55.5% 93.0% 130.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/15-galaxy-pistol?window=24h) | 248 | 93.07% ±36.8 | +0.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/15-galaxy-pistol?window=7d) | 3,451 | 91.52% ±9.85 | +0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/15-galaxy-pistol) | 4,845 | 89.70% ±8.32 | −0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/15-galaxy-pistol?window=all) | 4,845 | 89.70% ±8.32 | −0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,857 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-ocean-foam-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $252 504 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Synth Leaf (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-synth-leaf-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $212 425 coins | 1.7% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.41× | | [Souvenir Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-nuclear-threat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,250 | $172 344 coins | 2.2% | 6 | 3.9 | 1.54× | | [Souvenir Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-desert-eagle-hand-cannon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $144 288 coins | 2.3% | 5 | 4.9 | 1.03× | | [Souvenir Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-remote-control-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $140 280 coins | 5.6% | 15 | 12.1 | 1.24× | | [Souvenir Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-desert-eagle-fennec-fox-well-worn) | 1 in 357 | $116 233 coins | 5.2% | 17 | 13.6 | 1.25× | | [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-candy-apple-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $85.61 171 coins | 6.8% | 22 | 24.3 | 0.91× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 90 | $84.56 169 coins | 14.9% | 59 | 53.9 | 1.09× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Emerald Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-quartz-field-tested) | 1 in 82 | $73.00 146 coins | 14.2% | 57 | 59.3 | 0.96× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-snack-attack-factory-new) | 1 in 75 | $61.31 123 coins | 13.1% | 64 | 65.1 | 0.98× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $59.61 119 coins | 14.2% | 68 | 72.9 | 0.93× | | [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $25.96 51.91 coins | 5.2% | 51 | 60.7 | 0.84× | | [Dual Berettas \| Pyre (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-pyre-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $17.94 35.88 coins | 4.9% | 74 | 82.6 | 0.90× | | [P2000 \| Pathfinder (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-pathfinder-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $11.65 23.3 coins | 4.6% | 120 | 121.4 | 0.99× | | [Tec-9 \| Blast From the Past (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blast-from-the-past-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $9.53 19.06 coins | 4.7% | 153 | 151.1 | 1.01× | | [FAMAS \| Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) | 85.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.1% | 4,145 | 4128.4 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 12 Nov, 02:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=15-galaxy-pistol) [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $6.99 13.97 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 03:41 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $6.99 13.97 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 03:41 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $6.99 13.97 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 03:41 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $6.99 13.97 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 03:41 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $6.99 13.97 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 03:41 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $6.99 13.97 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 03:41 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $6.99 13.97 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 03:41 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $6.99 13.97 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 03:41 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $6.99 13.97 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 03:41 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $6.99 13.97 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 03:41 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $6.99 | 89.96% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 3.1% restricted 0.1% Restricted 0.1% Classified 0.3% mil spec 0.5% covert 2.4% Mil Spec Grade 1.2% industrial 4.2% milspec 3.1% consumer 85.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.96 on average: an expected loss of $10.04 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt