--- title: "15% Knife case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "15% Knife ($11.36) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 16 items with odds, observed 88.25% over 5,346 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/15-knife rendered: 2026-11-11T18:12Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [15% Knife](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/15-knife) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · 15% Knife A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/15-knife?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/15-knife?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/15-knife) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/15-knife?window=all) Price · $11.36 · 22.72 coins Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $10.22 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.25% · 5,346 openings, odds method Variance · 15.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 15 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 69.43% ±70.70 117 openings 7 days · 86.27% ±12.15 3,962 openings 30 days · 88.25% ±10.46 5,346 openings since tracking started · 88.25% ±10.46 5,346 openings -0.5% 70.3% 141.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/15-knife?window=24h) | 117 | 69.43% ±70.7 | −0.6σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/15-knife?window=7d) | 3,962 | 86.27% ±12.2 | −0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/15-knife) | 5,346 | 88.25% ±10.5 | −0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/15-knife?window=all) | 5,346 | 88.25% ±10.5 | −0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,346 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,449 2,899 coins | 2.8% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.94× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,429 2,858 coins | 2.8% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.94× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,022 2,043 coins | 2.0% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 5,000 | $901 1,803 coins | 1.8% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.94× | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 5,000 | $832 1,664 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 5,000 | $549 1,098 coins | 1.1% | 3 | 1.1 | 2.81× | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 5,000 | $538 1,077 coins | 1.1% | 3 | 1.1 | 2.81× | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 1,000 | $346 693 coins | 3.4% | 0 | 5.3 | 0.00× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $61.31 123 coins | 12.6% | 107 | 112.3 | 0.95× | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 48 | $57.70 115 coins | 11.9% | 112 | 112.3 | 1.00× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $57.67 115 coins | 11.8% | 110 | 112.3 | 0.98× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $57.54 115 coins | 11.8% | 118 | 112.3 | 1.05× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-night-stripe-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $56.78 114 coins | 11.7% | 113 | 112.3 | 1.01× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $56.76 114 coins | 11.7% | 128 | 112.3 | 1.14× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 46 | $56.72 113 coins | 12.0% | 118 | 115.5 | 1.02× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 85.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 4,531 | 4544.1 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $11.36 22.72 coins $1,449 2,899 coins 127.6x 2026-11-05 10:01 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $11.36 22.72 coins $1,449 2,899 coins 127.6x 2026-11-03 05:35 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $11.36 22.72 coins $1,429 2,858 coins 125.8x 2026-11-05 22:48 UTC [★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $11.36 22.72 coins $901 1,803 coins 79.35x 2026-11-06 23:26 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) [fr1endzone](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/fr1endzone) $11.36 22.72 coins $549 1,098 coins 48.32x 2026-11-05 16:07 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $11.36 22.72 coins $549 1,098 coins 48.32x 2026-11-03 16:23 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) [justsan](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/justsan) $11.36 22.72 coins $549 1,098 coins 48.32x 2026-11-03 13:06 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $11.36 22.72 coins $538 1,077 coins 47.40x 2026-11-04 20:13 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $11.36 22.72 coins $538 1,077 coins 47.40x 2026-11-04 18:50 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) [BG2x](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/BG2x) $11.36 22.72 coins $538 1,077 coins 47.40x 2026-11-03 13:31 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=15-knife) [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $11.36 22.72 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:26 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $11.36 22.72 coins $56.76 114 coins 5.00x 2026-11-11 14:26 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $11.36 22.72 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:26 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $11.36 22.72 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:26 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $11.36 22.72 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:26 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) [Crickzz1](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Crickzz1) $11.36 22.72 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:26 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $11.36 22.72 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:25 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $11.36 22.72 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:25 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $11.36 22.72 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:25 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) Hidden $11.36 22.72 coins $56.72 113 coins 4.99x 2026-11-11 14:25 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $11.36 | 89.98% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 4.5% Covert 0.0% covert knife 4.2% #ffd700 2.1% Immortal 2.1% gold 2.1% #4b69ff 85.0% best hit $1,449 (127.6x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt