---
title: "2% Lucky Bag case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "2% Lucky Bag ($5.17) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.97% from 50 items with odds, observed 95.53% over 1,310 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/2-lucky-bag
rendered: 2026-11-11T21:50Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [2% Lucky Bag](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/2-lucky-bag)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · 2% Lucky Bag

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/2-lucky-bag?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/2-lucky-bag?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/2-lucky-bag) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/2-lucky-bag?window=all)

Price · $5.17 · 10.34 coins

Advertised RTP · 89.97% · EV $4.65 from 50 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 95.53% · 1,310 openings, odds method

Variance · 4.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 84.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 117.61% ±33.39 142 openings

7 days · 91.80% ±14.83 720 openings

30 days · 95.53% ±10.99 1,310 openings

since tracking started · 95.53% ±10.99 1,310 openings

76.5% 114.0% 151.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/2-lucky-bag?window=24h) | 142 | 117.61% ±33.4 | +1.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/2-lucky-bag?window=7d) | 720 | 91.80% ±14.8 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/2-lucky-bag) | 1,310 | 95.53% ±11.0 | +1.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/2-lucky-bag?window=all) | 1,310 | 95.53% ±11.0 | +1.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 50 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,322 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Desert Shamagh (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-desert-shamagh-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $42.01 84.01 coins | 18.1% | 32 | 26.4 | 1.21× |
| [P250 \| Undertow (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-undertow-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $38.75 77.49 coins | 16.7% | 25 | 26.4 | 0.95× |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $25.96 51.91 coins | 11.2% | 18 | 26.4 | 0.68× |
| [FAMAS \| Contrast Spray (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-contrast-spray-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $24.98 49.95 coins | 10.7% | 36 | 26.4 | 1.36× |
| [P250 \| Splash (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-splash-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $24.44 48.87 coins | 10.5% | 34 | 26.4 | 1.29× |
| [USP-S \| Blueprint (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $24.16 48.32 coins | 10.4% | 30 | 26.4 | 1.13× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $21.41 42.82 coins | 9.2% | 23 | 26.4 | 0.87× |
| [USP-S \| Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $19.52 39.04 coins | 8.4% | 23 | 26.4 | 0.87× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Water Sigil (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-water-sigil-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.99 1.99 coins | 0.4% | 23 | 26.4 | 0.87× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Nightshade (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-nightshade-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.99 1.98 coins | 0.4% | 26 | 26.4 | 0.98× |
| [MAC-10 \| Tornado (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-tornado-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.97 1.95 coins | 0.4% | 24 | 26.4 | 0.91× |
| [AWP \| Worm God (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $0.97 1.94 coins | 0.4% | 33 | 26.4 | 1.25× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Jungle (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-jungle-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.89 1.77 coins | 0.4% | 26 | 26.4 | 0.98× |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.29 0.58 coins | 0.1% | 25 | 26.4 | 0.95× |
| [SG 553 \| Phantom (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.28 0.55 coins | 0.1% | 26 | 26.4 | 0.98× |
| [SG 553 \| Lush Ruins (Field-Tested) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-lush-ruins-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.27 0.53 coins | 0.1% | 26 | 26.4 | 0.98× |
| [FAMAS \| Faulty Wiring (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-faulty-wiring-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.26 0.52 coins | 0.1% | 23 | 26.4 | 0.87× |
| [SSG 08 \| Prey (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-prey-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $0.26 0.51 coins | 0.1% | 26 | 26.4 | 0.98× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-limelight-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.25 0.5 coins | 0.1% | 21 | 26.4 | 0.79× |
| [MAG-7 \| Firestarter (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.25 0.5 coins | 0.1% | 22 | 26.4 | 0.83× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Enforcer (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-enforcer-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.24 0.48 coins | 0.1% | 29 | 26.4 | 1.10× |
| [MP9 \| Capillary (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-capillary-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $0.23 0.47 coins | 0.1% | 25 | 26.4 | 0.95× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-jungle-slipstream-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $0.23 0.47 coins | 0.1% | 20 | 26.4 | 0.76× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Directive (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.23 0.46 coins | 0.1% | 41 | 26.4 | 1.55× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.23 0.46 coins | 0.1% | 18 | 26.4 | 0.68× |
| [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.22 0.44 coins | 0.1% | 27 | 26.4 | 1.02× |
| [SSG 08 \| Mainframe 001 (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-mainframe-001-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $0.21 0.43 coins | 0.1% | 22 | 26.4 | 0.83× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Clay Ambush (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-clay-ambush-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.21 0.43 coins | 0.1% | 23 | 26.4 | 0.87× |
| [Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-umbral-rabbit-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.20 0.41 coins | 0.1% | 32 | 26.4 | 1.21× |
| [SG 553 \| Darkwing (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.20 0.41 coins | 0.1% | 32 | 26.4 | 1.21× |
| [XM1014 \| Blue Steel (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $0.20 0.39 coins | 0.1% | 24 | 26.4 | 0.91× |
| [Glock-18 \| Weasel (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-weasel-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.19 0.38 coins | 0.1% | 27 | 26.4 | 1.02× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scrawl-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $0.18 0.37 coins | 0.1% | 22 | 26.4 | 0.83× |
| [P250 \| Cyber Shell (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cyber-shell-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.18 0.37 coins | 0.1% | 33 | 26.4 | 1.25× |
| [FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $0.18 0.36 coins | 0.1% | 26 | 26.4 | 0.98× |
| [Glock-18 \| Winterized (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-winterized-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $0.18 0.36 coins | 0.1% | 28 | 26.4 | 1.06× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Corinthian (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-corinthian-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.18 0.36 coins | 0.1% | 25 | 26.4 | 0.95× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-space-cat-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.16 0.32 coins | 0.1% | 27 | 26.4 | 1.02× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Powercore (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-powercore-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.16 0.32 coins | 0.1% | 30 | 26.4 | 1.13× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Urban Rubble (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-rubble-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.16 0.32 coins | 0.1% | 35 | 26.4 | 1.32× |
| [UMP-45 \| Corporal (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-corporal-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.15 0.31 coins | 0.1% | 21 | 26.4 | 0.79× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Fragments (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-fragments-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $0.15 0.3 coins | 0.1% | 23 | 26.4 | 0.87× |
| [SG 553 \| Aloha (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $0.14 0.29 coins | 0.1% | 22 | 26.4 | 0.83× |
| [P250 \| Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $0.14 0.28 coins | 0.1% | 24 | 26.4 | 0.91× |
| [MP7 \| Motherboard (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-motherboard-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.03 0.06 coins | 0.0% | 24 | 26.4 | 0.91× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Distressed (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.03 0.05 coins | 0.0% | 23 | 26.4 | 0.87× |
| [P250 \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.02 0.04 coins | 0.0% | 37 | 26.4 | 1.40× |
| [Galil AR \| Sage Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sage-spray-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.01 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 31 | 26.4 | 1.17× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Sand Mesh (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-sand-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 26 | 26.4 | 0.98× |
| [XM1014 \| Blue Spruce (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-spruce-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 23 | 26.4 | 0.87× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=2-lucky-bag)

[FAMAS | Contrast Spray (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-contrast-spray-factory-new) Hidden $5.17 10.34 coins $24.98 49.95 coins 4.83x 2026-11-11 21:49 UTC

[★ Hand Wraps | Desert Shamagh (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-desert-shamagh-field-tested) Hidden $5.17 10.34 coins $42.01 84.01 coins 8.12x 2026-11-11 21:49 UTC

[FAMAS | Faulty Wiring (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-faulty-wiring-field-tested) Hidden $5.17 10.34 coins $0.26 0.52 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 21:49 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-space-cat-field-tested) Hidden $5.17 10.34 coins $0.16 0.32 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 21:49 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Fragments (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-fragments-factory-new) Hidden $5.17 10.34 coins $0.15 0.3 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 21:49 UTC

[USP-S | Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-factory-new) Hidden $5.17 10.34 coins $25.96 51.91 coins 5.02x 2026-11-11 21:49 UTC

[MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-field-tested) Hidden $5.17 10.34 coins $0.25 0.5 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 21:49 UTC

[Glock-18 | Winterized (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-winterized-factory-new) Hidden $5.17 10.34 coins $0.18 0.36 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 21:49 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Corinthian (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-corinthian-field-tested) Hidden $5.17 10.34 coins $0.18 0.36 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:45 UTC

[SG 553 | Phantom (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-field-tested) Hidden $5.17 10.34 coins $0.28 0.55 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:45 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5.17 | 89.97% | 50 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 2.0% classified 6.0% covert 2.0% consumer 16.0% restricted 8.0% mil spec 12.0% Mil Spec Grade 2.0% Consumer Grade 6.0% #8847ff 8.0% violet 6.0% grey 2.0% Mythical 8.0% blue 8.0% milspec 6.0% industrial 2.0% Rare 2.0% #87c7ff 2.0% #4b69ff 2.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.97 on average: an expected loss of $10.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt