--- title: "20% AWP Fade case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "20% AWP Fade ($245.95) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 10 items with odds, observed 105.60% over 108 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/20-awp-fade rendered: 2026-11-12T04:38Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [20% AWP Fade](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/20-awp-fade) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · 20% AWP Fade A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/20-awp-fade?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/20-awp-fade?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/20-awp-fade) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/20-awp-fade?window=all) Price · $245.95 · 492 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $221.35 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 105.60% · 108 openings, odds method Variance · 1.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 14 openings · below min 7 days · 70 openings · below min 30 days · 105.60% ±26.06 108 openings since tracking started · 105.60% ±26.06 108 openings 35.0% 108.0% 181.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/20-awp-fade?window=24h) | 14 | 107.81% ±72.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/20-awp-fade?window=7d) | 70 | 116.21% ±32.4 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/20-awp-fade) | 108 | 105.60% ±26.1 | +1.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/20-awp-fade?window=all) | 108 | 105.60% ±26.1 | +1.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 108 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 20.0% | $884 1,767 coins | 79.8% | 28 | 21.6 | 1.30× | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $271 542 coins | 6.1% | 3 | 5.4 | 0.56× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $217 434 coins | 4.9% | 4 | 5.4 | 0.74× | | [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $201 401 coins | 4.5% | 3 | 5.4 | 0.56× | | [Souvenir UMP-45 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ump-45-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $58.26 117 coins | 1.3% | 7 | 5.4 | 1.30× | | [MAC-10 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-factory-new) | 12.0% | $23.04 46.07 coins | 1.2% | 7 | 13.0 | 0.54× | | [Galil AR \| Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-amber-fade-factory-new) | 12.0% | $15.86 31.71 coins | 0.9% | 11 | 13.0 | 0.85× | | [R8 Revolver \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-factory-new) | 12.0% | $11.52 23.04 coins | 0.6% | 8 | 13.0 | 0.62× | | [MP7 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) | 12.0% | $6.30 12.59 coins | 0.3% | 18 | 13.0 | 1.39× | | [MP7 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-minimal-wear) | 12.0% | $3.88 7.75 coins | 0.2% | 19 | 13.0 | 1.47× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 12 Nov, 02:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $246 492 coins $884 1,767 coins 3.59x 2026-11-11 20:23 UTC [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $246 492 coins $884 1,767 coins 3.59x 2026-11-11 20:23 UTC [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $246 492 coins $884 1,767 coins 3.59x 2026-11-11 20:23 UTC [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $246 492 coins $884 1,767 coins 3.59x 2026-11-11 13:56 UTC [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) [prudent](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/prudent) $246 492 coins $884 1,767 coins 3.59x 2026-11-10 12:14 UTC [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $246 492 coins $884 1,767 coins 3.59x 2026-11-09 16:50 UTC [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $246 492 coins $884 1,767 coins 3.59x 2026-11-09 16:50 UTC [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $246 492 coins $884 1,767 coins 3.59x 2026-11-09 16:50 UTC [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) [nigxoo](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/nigxoo) $246 492 coins $884 1,767 coins 3.59x 2026-11-09 10:58 UTC [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $246 492 coins $884 1,767 coins 3.59x 2026-11-09 10:58 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=20-awp-fade) [Galil AR | Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-amber-fade-factory-new) Hidden $246 492 coins $15.86 31.71 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 20:23 UTC [MAC-10 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-factory-new) Hidden $246 492 coins $23.04 46.07 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 20:23 UTC [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $246 492 coins $884 1,767 coins 3.59x 2026-11-11 20:23 UTC [MP7 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) Hidden $246 492 coins $6.30 12.59 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 20:23 UTC [Souvenir UMP-45 | Fade (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ump-45-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $246 492 coins $58.26 117 coins 0.24x 2026-11-11 20:23 UTC [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $246 492 coins $884 1,767 coins 3.59x 2026-11-11 20:23 UTC [MP7 | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $246 492 coins $3.88 7.75 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:23 UTC [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $246 492 coins $884 1,767 coins 3.59x 2026-11-11 20:23 UTC [MAC-10 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-factory-new) Hidden $246 492 coins $23.04 46.07 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:56 UTC [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $246 492 coins $884 1,767 coins 3.59x 2026-11-11 13:56 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $246 | 90.00% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 42.0% covert knife 5.0% classified 5.0% mil spec 12.0% Mil Spec Grade 12.0% restricted 24.0% best hit $884 (3.59x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt