--- title: "200x Or Bust case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "200x Or Bust ($0.52) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.53% from 2 items with odds, observed 97.55% over 13K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/200x-or-bust rendered: 2026-11-11T19:28Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [200x Or Bust](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/200x-or-bust) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · 200x Or Bust A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/200x-or-bust?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/200x-or-bust?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/200x-or-bust) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/200x-or-bust?window=all) Price · $0.52 · 1.04 coins Advertised RTP · 89.53% · EV $0.47 from 2 items Observed RTP, 30d · 97.55% · 13K openings, odds method Variance · 162.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 208 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 80.59% ±62.06 1,622 openings 7 days · 86.69% ±29.66 7,103 openings 30 days · 97.55% ±21.93 13K openings since tracking started · 97.55% ±21.93 13K openings 18.0% 80.8% 143.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/200x-or-bust?window=24h) | 1,622 | 80.59% ±62.1 | −0.3σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/200x-or-bust?window=7d) | 7,103 | 86.69% ±29.7 | −0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/200x-or-bust) | 13K | 97.55% ±21.9 | +0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/200x-or-bust?window=all) | 13K | 97.55% ±21.9 | +0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 2 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 13K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| Temukau (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-factory-new) | 1 in 208 | $95.96 192 coins | 98.9% | 68 | 62.4 | 1.09× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 99.5% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 1.1% | 12,925 | 12930.6 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A4 | Temukau (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-factory-new) Hidden $0.52 1.04 coins $95.96 192 coins 184.5x 2026-11-11 16:19 UTC [M4A4 | Temukau (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-factory-new) Hidden $0.52 1.04 coins $95.96 192 coins 184.5x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC [M4A4 | Temukau (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-factory-new) Hidden $0.52 1.04 coins $95.96 192 coins 184.5x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC [M4A4 | Temukau (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-factory-new) Hidden $0.52 1.04 coins $95.96 192 coins 184.5x 2026-11-11 13:02 UTC [M4A4 | Temukau (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-factory-new) Hidden $0.52 1.04 coins $95.96 192 coins 184.5x 2026-11-11 13:00 UTC [M4A4 | Temukau (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-factory-new) Hidden $0.52 1.04 coins $95.96 192 coins 184.5x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC [M4A4 | Temukau (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-factory-new) Hidden $0.52 1.04 coins $95.96 192 coins 184.5x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC [M4A4 | Temukau (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-factory-new) Hidden $0.52 1.04 coins $95.96 192 coins 184.5x 2026-11-10 11:49 UTC [M4A4 | Temukau (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-factory-new) [jades](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/jades) $0.52 1.04 coins $95.96 192 coins 184.5x 2026-11-10 10:38 UTC [M4A4 | Temukau (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-factory-new) Hidden $0.52 1.04 coins $95.96 192 coins 184.5x 2026-11-10 10:34 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=200x-or-bust) [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.52 1.04 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.52 1.04 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) [oskandle](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/oskandle) $0.52 1.04 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.52 1.04 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.52 1.04 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.52 1.04 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.52 1.04 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.52 1.04 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.52 1.04 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:02 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.52 1.04 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:02 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.52 | 89.53% | 2 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.5% #4b69ff 99.5% best hit $95.96 (184.5x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.53 on average: an expected loss of $10.47 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt