--- title: "25% Blaze case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "25% Blaze ($201.28) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 4 items with odds, observed 90.69% over 16 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/25-blaze rendered: 2026-11-11T17:22Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [25% Blaze](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/25-blaze) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · 25% Blaze A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/25-blaze?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/25-blaze?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/25-blaze) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/25-blaze?window=all) Price · $201.28 · 403 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $181.15 from 4 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.69% · 16 openings, odds method Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 25.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 16 openings · below min 30 days · 16 openings · below min since tracking started · 16 openings · below min 46.0% 90.8% 135.5% **Small sample.** 16 openings and 4.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/25-blaze?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/25-blaze?window=7d) | 16 | 90.69% ±44.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/25-blaze) | 16 | 90.69% ±44.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/25-blaze?window=all) | 16 | 90.69% ±44.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 25.0% | $462 923 coins | 63.7% | 5 | 4.0 | 1.25× | | [Souvenir Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-desert-eagle-fennec-fox-minimal-wear) | 33.0% | $195 389 coins | 35.5% | 3 | 5.3 | 0.57× | | [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-field-tested) | 21.0% | $4.58 9.15 coins | 0.5% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.19× | | [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-factory-new) | 21.0% | $2.69 5.38 coins | 0.3% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.19× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=25-blaze) [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $201 403 coins $462 923 coins 2.29x 2026-11-07 02:25 UTC [Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $201 403 coins $4.58 9.15 coins 0.02x 2026-11-07 02:25 UTC [Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $201 403 coins $4.58 9.15 coins 0.02x 2026-11-07 02:25 UTC [Souvenir Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-desert-eagle-fennec-fox-minimal-wear) Hidden $201 403 coins $195 389 coins 0.97x 2026-11-07 02:25 UTC [Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $201 403 coins $4.58 9.15 coins 0.02x 2026-11-07 02:25 UTC [Souvenir Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-desert-eagle-fennec-fox-minimal-wear) Hidden $201 403 coins $195 389 coins 0.97x 2026-11-07 02:25 UTC [Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-factory-new) Hidden $201 403 coins $2.69 5.38 coins 0.01x 2026-11-07 02:25 UTC [Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-field-tested) [Tomex](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Tomex) $201 403 coins $4.58 9.15 coins 0.02x 2026-11-07 02:25 UTC [Souvenir Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-desert-eagle-fennec-fox-minimal-wear) Hidden $201 403 coins $195 389 coins 0.97x 2026-11-07 02:24 UTC [Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-factory-new) Hidden $201 403 coins $2.69 5.38 coins 0.01x 2026-11-07 02:24 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $201 | 90.00% | 4 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed rare 25.0% Classified 33.0% restricted 42.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt