--- title: "3% CELESTIAL DROP case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "3% CELESTIAL DROP ($125.00) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 25.43% over 46 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/3-celestial-drop rendered: 2026-11-12T15:00Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [3% CELESTIAL DROP](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/3-celestial-drop) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · 3% CELESTIAL DROP A case on Chicken.gg, first seen 11 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/3-celestial-drop?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/3-celestial-drop?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/3-celestial-drop) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/3-celestial-drop?window=all) Price · $125.00 · 250 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 25.43% · 46 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 32 openings · below min 7 days · 46 openings · below min 30 days · 46 openings · below min since tracking started · 46 openings · below min -0.5% 43.5% 87.5% **Small sample.** 46 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/3-celestial-drop?window=24h) | 32 | 36.55% ±50.3 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/3-celestial-drop?window=7d) | 46 | 25.43% ±35.2 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/3-celestial-drop) | 46 | 25.43% ±35.2 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/3-celestial-drop?window=all) | 46 | 25.43% ±35.2 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Chicken.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $125 250 coins $832 1,664 coins 6.66x 2026-11-12 05:56 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $125 250 coins $630 1,260 coins 5.04x 2026-11-12 05:56 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=3-celestial-drop) [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $125 250 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 05:59 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $125 250 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 05:59 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $125 250 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 05:59 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $125 250 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 05:59 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $125 250 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 05:59 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $125 250 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 05:59 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $125 250 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 05:59 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $125 250 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 05:59 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $125 250 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 05:58 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $125 250 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 05:58 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $832 (6.66x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 25.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $25.43 on average: an expected loss of $74.57 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt