--- title: "3% Ultima case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "3% Ultima ($95.16) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 111.68% over 756 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/3-ultima rendered: 2026-11-12T10:12Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [3% Ultima](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/3-ultima) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · 3% Ultima A case on Chicken.gg, first seen 4 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/3-ultima?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/3-ultima?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/3-ultima) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/3-ultima?window=all) Price · $95.16 · 190 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 111.68% · 756 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 66 openings · below min 7 days · 732 openings · below min 30 days · 756 openings · below min since tracking started · 756 openings · below min -0.5% 113.3% 227.0% **Small sample.** 756 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/3-ultima?window=24h) | 66 | 26.83% ±40.2 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/3-ultima?window=7d) | 732 | 115.30% ±110.9 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/3-ultima) | 756 | 111.68% ±107.4 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/3-ultima?window=all) | 756 | 111.68% ±107.4 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Chicken.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) Hidden $95.16 190 coins $26.7K 53,347 coins 280.3x 2026-11-09 04:16 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) Hidden $95.16 190 coins $26.7K 53,347 coins 280.3x 2026-11-09 04:14 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $95.16 190 coins $10.9K 21,888 coins 115.0x 2026-11-09 04:14 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) Hidden $95.16 190 coins $1,824 3,649 coins 19.17x 2026-11-09 04:14 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-ultraviolet-factory-new) Hidden $95.16 190 coins $1,551 3,102 coins 16.30x 2026-11-09 04:17 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-ultraviolet-factory-new) Hidden $95.16 190 coins $1,551 3,102 coins 16.30x 2026-11-09 04:01 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-ultraviolet-factory-new) Hidden $95.16 190 coins $1,551 3,102 coins 16.30x 2026-11-09 04:01 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) Hidden $95.16 190 coins $1,241 2,481 coins 13.04x 2026-11-11 20:59 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) [prudent](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/prudent) $95.16 190 coins $1,241 2,481 coins 13.04x 2026-11-09 11:31 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) Hidden $95.16 190 coins $1,241 2,481 coins 13.04x 2026-11-09 04:14 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=3-ultima) [MAC-10 | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-field-tested) Hidden $95.16 190 coins $1.09 2.17 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 21:00 UTC [MAC-10 | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-field-tested) Hidden $95.16 190 coins $1.09 2.17 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 21:00 UTC [MAC-10 | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-field-tested) Hidden $95.16 190 coins $1.09 2.17 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 21:00 UTC [MAC-10 | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-field-tested) Hidden $95.16 190 coins $1.09 2.17 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 21:00 UTC [MAC-10 | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-field-tested) Hidden $95.16 190 coins $1.09 2.17 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 21:00 UTC [MAC-10 | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-field-tested) Hidden $95.16 190 coins $1.09 2.17 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 21:00 UTC [MAC-10 | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-field-tested) Hidden $95.16 190 coins $1.09 2.17 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 21:00 UTC [MAC-10 | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-field-tested) Hidden $95.16 190 coins $1.09 2.17 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 21:00 UTC [MAC-10 | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-field-tested) Hidden $95.16 190 coins $1.09 2.17 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 21:00 UTC [MAC-10 | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-field-tested) Hidden $95.16 190 coins $1.09 2.17 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 21:00 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $26.7K (280.3x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 111.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $111.68 on average: an expected loss of $0.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt