---
title: "30% Knife case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "30% Knife ($39.29) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 86.24% over 524 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/30-knife
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:06Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [30% Knife](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/30-knife)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · 30% Knife

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/30-knife?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/30-knife?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/30-knife) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/30-knife?window=all)

Price · $39.29 · 78.57 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $35.36 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.24% · 524 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 14.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 20 openings · below min

7 days · 85.32% ±20.48 312 openings

30 days · 86.24% ±15.80 524 openings

since tracking started · 86.24% ±15.80 524 openings

3.5% 85.0% 166.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/30-knife?window=24h) | 20 | 85.21% ±80.9 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/30-knife?window=7d) | 312 | 85.32% ±20.5 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/30-knife) | 524 | 86.24% ±15.8 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/30-knife?window=all) | 524 | 86.24% ±15.8 | −0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 524 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $6,234 12,468 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $2,317 4,635 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 20,000 | $2,251 4,502 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 20,000 | $2,156 4,312 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,876 3,752 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,865 3,729 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 5,000 | $873 1,745 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $838 1,677 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 5,000 | $816 1,631 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $793 1,585 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $760 1,520 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $131 261 coins | 25.9% | 40 | 36.7 | 1.09× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $130 259 coins | 25.7% | 39 | 36.7 | 1.06× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $126 253 coins | 25.0% | 31 | 36.7 | 0.85× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $75.51 151 coins | 18.9% | 47 | 46.4 | 1.01× |
| [P250 \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) | 70.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 367 | 366.8 | 1.00× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=30-knife)

[★ Navaja Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $39.29 78.57 coins $75.51 151 coins 1.92x 2026-11-10 21:00 UTC

[P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $39.29 78.57 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 21:00 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $39.29 78.57 coins $131 261 coins 3.33x 2026-11-10 21:00 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) Hidden $39.29 78.57 coins $131 261 coins 3.33x 2026-11-10 20:56 UTC

[P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $39.29 78.57 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 20:56 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $39.29 78.57 coins $75.51 151 coins 1.92x 2026-11-10 20:56 UTC

[P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) [Ravtok](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Ravtok) $39.29 78.57 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 20:56 UTC

[P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $39.29 78.57 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 20:56 UTC

[P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $39.29 78.57 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 20:56 UTC

[P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $39.29 78.57 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 20:56 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $39.29 | 90.00% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed #ffd700 0.0% covert 16.0% Covert 0.0% gold 7.0% covert knife 7.0% consumer 70.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt