--- title: "300x Or Bust case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "300x Or Bust ($0.52) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.72% from 2 items with odds, observed 136.25% over 6,614 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/300x-or-bust rendered: 2026-11-11T20:04Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [300x Or Bust](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/300x-or-bust) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · 300x Or Bust A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/300x-or-bust?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/300x-or-bust?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/300x-or-bust) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/300x-or-bust?window=all) Price · $0.52 · 1.04 coins Advertised RTP · 89.72% · EV $0.47 from 2 items Observed RTP, 30d · 136.25% · 6,614 openings, odds method Variance · 255.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 325 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 560 openings · below min 7 days · 135.31% ±42.74 5,371 openings 30 days · 136.25% ±38.52 6,614 openings since tracking started · 136.25% ±38.52 6,614 openings 22.5% 155.5% 288.5% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 89.72% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (97.73% – 174.77%, 6,614 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/300x-or-bust?window=24h) | 560 | 155.59% ±132.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/300x-or-bust?window=7d) | 5,371 | 135.31% ±42.7 | +2.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/300x-or-bust) | 6,614 | 136.25% ±38.5 | +2.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/300x-or-bust?window=all) | 6,614 | 136.25% ±38.5 | +2.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 2 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,616 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 325 | $150 300 coins | 98.9% | 31 | 20.3 | 1.52× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 99.7% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 1.1% | 6,585 | 6595.7 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $0.52 1.04 coins $150 300 coins 288.7x 2026-11-11 16:19 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $0.52 1.04 coins $150 300 coins 288.7x 2026-11-11 12:26 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $0.52 1.04 coins $150 300 coins 288.7x 2026-11-11 01:58 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $0.52 1.04 coins $150 300 coins 288.7x 2026-11-10 19:17 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $0.52 1.04 coins $150 300 coins 288.7x 2026-11-10 18:48 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $0.52 1.04 coins $150 300 coins 288.7x 2026-11-10 11:09 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $0.52 1.04 coins $150 300 coins 288.7x 2026-11-10 11:09 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $0.52 1.04 coins $150 300 coins 288.7x 2026-11-10 10:50 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $0.52 1.04 coins $150 300 coins 288.7x 2026-11-10 10:47 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $0.52 1.04 coins $150 300 coins 288.7x 2026-11-10 10:46 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=300x-or-bust) [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.52 1.04 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:02 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.52 1.04 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:02 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.52 1.04 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:02 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.52 1.04 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:02 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.52 1.04 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:02 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.52 1.04 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:02 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.52 1.04 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:02 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) [Ler1](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Ler1) $0.52 1.04 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:02 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.52 1.04 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:00 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.52 1.04 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:00 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.52 | 89.72% | 2 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert knife 0.3% #4b69ff 99.7% best hit $150 (288.7x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.72 on average: an expected loss of $10.28 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt