--- title: "400x Or Bust case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "400x Or Bust ($0.51) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.12% from 4 items with odds, observed 97.53% over 7,793 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/400x-or-bust rendered: 2026-11-11T19:51Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [400x Or Bust](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/400x-or-bust) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · 400x Or Bust A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/400x-or-bust?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/400x-or-bust?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/400x-or-bust) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/400x-or-bust?window=all) Price · $0.51 · 1.01 coins Advertised RTP · 88.12% · EV $0.45 from 4 items Observed RTP, 30d · 97.53% · 7,793 openings, odds method Variance · 344.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 685 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 683 openings · below min 7 days · 114.97% ±54.11 4,518 openings 30 days · 97.53% ±41.20 7,793 openings since tracking started · 97.53% ±41.20 7,793 openings -0.5% 99.0% 198.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/400x-or-bust?window=24h) | 683 | 58.72% ±139.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/400x-or-bust?window=7d) | 4,518 | 114.97% ±54.1 | +1.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/400x-or-bust) | 7,793 | 97.53% ±41.2 | +0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/400x-or-bust?window=all) | 7,793 | 97.53% ±41.2 | +0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,793 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,370 | $201 401 coins | 32.9% | 6 | 5.7 | 1.05× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 1,370 | $200 401 coins | 32.9% | 6 | 5.7 | 1.05× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 1,351 | $199 398 coins | 33.1% | 7 | 5.8 | 1.21× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 99.8% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 1.1% | 7,774 | 7775.9 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $0.51 1.01 coins $201 401 coins 397.1x 2026-11-10 10:38 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $0.51 1.01 coins $201 401 coins 397.1x 2026-11-10 10:34 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $0.51 1.01 coins $201 401 coins 397.1x 2026-11-09 08:04 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $0.51 1.01 coins $201 401 coins 397.1x 2026-11-08 18:18 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $0.51 1.01 coins $201 401 coins 397.1x 2026-11-07 18:52 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $0.51 1.01 coins $201 401 coins 397.1x 2026-11-03 07:39 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $0.51 1.01 coins $200 401 coins 396.8x 2026-11-10 19:15 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $0.51 1.01 coins $200 401 coins 396.8x 2026-11-10 18:05 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $0.51 1.01 coins $200 401 coins 396.8x 2026-11-10 10:30 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $0.51 1.01 coins $200 401 coins 396.8x 2026-11-05 10:35 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=400x-or-bust) [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.51 1.01 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:38 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.51 1.01 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:38 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) [kvaki](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/kvaki) $0.51 1.01 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:38 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.51 1.01 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:38 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.51 1.01 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:38 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.51 1.01 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:38 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.51 1.01 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:38 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.51 1.01 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:38 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.51 1.01 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:38 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.51 1.01 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:38 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.51 | 88.12% | 4 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert knife 0.1% Covert 0.1% covert 0.1% #4b69ff 99.8% best hit $201 (397.1x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.12 on average: an expected loss of $11.88 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt