--- title: "5% Frozen Awp case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "5% Frozen Awp ($19.80) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 12 items with odds, observed 87.82% over 2,721 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/5-frozen-awp rendered: 2026-11-12T06:29Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [5% Frozen Awp](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/5-frozen-awp) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · 5% Frozen Awp A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/5-frozen-awp?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/5-frozen-awp?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/5-frozen-awp) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/5-frozen-awp?window=all) Price · $19.80 · 39.59 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $17.82 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.82% · 2,721 openings, odds method Variance · 50.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 99 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 175 openings · below min 7 days · 86.34% ±31.10 2,002 openings 30 days · 87.82% ±26.67 2,721 openings since tracking started · 87.82% ±26.67 2,721 openings -0.5% 61.3% 123.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/5-frozen-awp?window=24h) | 175 | 17.11% ±105.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/5-frozen-awp?window=7d) | 2,002 | 86.34% ±31.1 | −0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/5-frozen-awp) | 2,721 | 87.82% ±26.7 | −0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/5-frozen-awp?window=all) | 2,721 | 87.82% ±26.7 | −0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,721 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $9,355 18,710 coins | 5.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [AWP \| Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,788 3,577 coins | 10.0% | 4 | 2.7 | 1.47× | | [Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $1,266 2,533 coins | 14.2% | 6 | 5.4 | 1.10× | | [SCAR-20 \| Splash Jam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-factory-new) | 1 in 286 | $658 1,316 coins | 12.9% | 10 | 9.5 | 1.05× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 286 | $657 1,315 coins | 12.9% | 7 | 9.5 | 0.74× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Graphite (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-graphite-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $290 580 coins | 9.8% | 15 | 16.3 | 0.92× | | [SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-death-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 167 | $277 555 coins | 9.3% | 15 | 16.3 | 0.92× | | [AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $269 538 coins | 9.1% | 15 | 16.3 | 0.92× | | [AWP \| Snake Camo (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-snake-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 154 | $202 404 coins | 7.4% | 22 | 17.7 | 1.24× | | [AWP \| Doodle Lore (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-doodle-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 130 | $156 312 coins | 6.7% | 20 | 21.0 | 0.95× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-elite-build-factory-new) | 1 in 130 | $53.59 107 coins | 2.3% | 23 | 21.0 | 1.10× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 95.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 2,584 | 2584.9 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 12 Nov, 02:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) Hidden $19.80 39.59 coins $1,788 3,577 coins 90.35x 2026-11-10 18:45 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) Hidden $19.80 39.59 coins $1,788 3,577 coins 90.35x 2026-11-06 12:24 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) Hidden $19.80 39.59 coins $1,788 3,577 coins 90.35x 2026-11-06 12:22 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) [cherrylea](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/cherrylea) $19.80 39.59 coins $1,788 3,577 coins 90.35x 2026-11-05 00:44 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) Hidden $19.80 39.59 coins $1,266 2,533 coins 63.98x 2026-11-10 08:07 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) [axel02legmail](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/axel02legmail) $19.80 39.59 coins $1,266 2,533 coins 63.98x 2026-11-08 20:43 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) Hidden $19.80 39.59 coins $1,266 2,533 coins 63.98x 2026-11-06 19:06 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) Hidden $19.80 39.59 coins $1,266 2,533 coins 63.98x 2026-11-06 16:04 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) Hidden $19.80 39.59 coins $1,266 2,533 coins 63.98x 2026-11-06 12:23 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) Hidden $19.80 39.59 coins $1,266 2,533 coins 63.98x 2026-11-04 07:03 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=5-frozen-awp) [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $19.80 39.59 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 02:57 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $19.80 39.59 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 02:57 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $19.80 39.59 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 02:57 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $19.80 39.59 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 02:57 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $19.80 39.59 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 02:57 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $19.80 39.59 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 02:57 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $19.80 39.59 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 02:57 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) [BrokeCalls](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/BrokeCalls) $19.80 39.59 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 02:57 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $19.80 39.59 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 02:57 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $19.80 39.59 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 02:57 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $19.80 | 90.00% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.3% classified 1.7% Classified 0.6% mil spec 0.7% other 0.8% #4b69ff 95.0% best hit $1,788 (90.35x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt