--- title: "5% Knife case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "5% Knife ($4.11) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.97% from 16 items with odds, observed 80.69% over 21.5K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/5-knife rendered: 2026-11-11T15:55Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [5% Knife](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/5-knife) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · 5% Knife A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/5-knife?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/5-knife?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/5-knife) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/5-knife?window=all) Price · $4.11 · 8.22 coins Advertised RTP · 89.97% · EV $3.70 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 80.69% · 21.5K openings, odds method Variance · 32.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 76.00% ±23.74 2,189 openings 7 days · 81.64% ±8.46 17.2K openings 30 days · 80.69% ±7.57 21.5K openings since tracking started · 80.69% ±7.57 21.5K openings 51.5% 76.0% 100.5% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 89.97% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (73.12% – 88.26%, 21,523 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/5-knife?window=24h) | 2,189 | 76.00% ±23.7 | −1.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/5-knife?window=7d) | 17.2K | 81.64% ±8.46 | −1.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/5-knife) | 21.5K | 80.69% ±7.57 | −2.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/5-knife?window=all) | 21.5K | 80.69% ±7.57 | −2.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 21.5K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,293 2,585 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,191 2,383 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 20,000 | $966 1,931 coins | 1.3% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $870 1,740 coins | 1.2% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.93× | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 14,286 | $618 1,237 coins | 1.2% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.66× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 11,236 | $545 1,090 coins | 1.3% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 11,111 | $504 1,008 coins | 1.2% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.03× | | [★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $379 757 coins | 1.0% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.46× | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 3,333 | $349 698 coins | 2.8% | 3 | 6.5 | 0.46× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · gold · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 2,000 | $336 672 coins | 4.5% | 9 | 10.8 | 0.84× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-night-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $333 666 coins | 4.5% | 9 | 10.8 | 0.84× | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $254 507 coins | 3.4% | 17 | 10.8 | 1.58× | | [★ Classic Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 1,429 | $81.41 163 coins | 1.5% | 9 | 15.1 | 0.60× | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $67.83 136 coins | 18.3% | 192 | 215.4 | 0.89× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 27 | $56.72 113 coins | 56.8% | 764 | 797.7 | 0.96× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 95.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.1% | 20,533 | 20464.0 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $4.11 8.22 coins $870 1,740 coins 211.6x 2026-11-10 07:05 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $4.11 8.22 coins $618 1,237 coins 150.4x 2026-11-09 15:37 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-damascus-steel-factory-new) Hidden $4.11 8.22 coins $504 1,008 coins 122.6x 2026-11-04 20:15 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-damascus-steel-factory-new) Hidden $4.11 8.22 coins $504 1,008 coins 122.6x 2026-11-03 16:31 UTC [★ Bayonet | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.11 8.22 coins $379 757 coins 92.09x 2026-11-05 15:53 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $4.11 8.22 coins $349 698 coins 84.92x 2026-11-08 12:32 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $4.11 8.22 coins $349 698 coins 84.92x 2026-11-06 23:02 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $4.11 8.22 coins $349 698 coins 84.92x 2026-11-04 12:43 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · gold · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $4.11 8.22 coins $336 672 coins 81.70x 2026-11-10 17:10 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · gold · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $4.11 8.22 coins $336 672 coins 81.70x 2026-11-08 21:40 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=5-knife) [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $4.11 8.22 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:29 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $4.11 8.22 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:29 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $4.11 8.22 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:29 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $4.11 8.22 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:29 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $4.11 8.22 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:29 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) [valentinslisaks](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/valentinslisaks) $4.11 8.22 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:29 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $4.11 8.22 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:29 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $4.11 8.22 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:29 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $4.11 8.22 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:29 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $4.11 8.22 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:29 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.11 | 89.97% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 3.8% sunny 0.0% covert knife 1.1% gold 0.1% other 0.1% #4b69ff 95.0% best hit $870 (211.6x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.97 on average: an expected loss of $10.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt