--- title: "5% Loot case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "5% Loot ($4.40) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.93% from 11 items with odds, observed 94.20% over 14.5K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/5-loot rendered: 2026-11-11T20:23Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [5% Loot](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/5-loot) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · 5% Loot A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/5-loot?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/5-loot?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/5-loot) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/5-loot?window=all) Price · $4.40 · 8.8 coins Advertised RTP · 89.93% · EV $3.96 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 94.20% · 14.5K openings, odds method Variance · 18.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 51 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 94.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 86.33% ±16.22 2,687 openings 7 days · 92.76% ±7.79 11.6K openings 30 days · 94.20% ±6.97 14.5K openings since tracking started · 94.20% ±6.97 14.5K openings 69.5% 86.3% 103.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/5-loot?window=24h) | 2,687 | 86.33% ±16.2 | −0.4σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/5-loot?window=7d) | 11.6K | 92.76% ±7.79 | +0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/5-loot) | 14.5K | 94.20% ±6.97 | +1.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/5-loot?window=all) | 14.5K | 94.20% ±6.97 | +1.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14.6K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $428 855 coins | 1.1% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.69× | | [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $301 602 coins | 3.8% | 5 | 7.3 | 0.69× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $193 386 coins | 4.9% | 13 | 14.6 | 0.89× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $120 240 coins | 6.1% | 39 | 29.1 | 1.34× | | [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $104 208 coins | 7.9% | 43 | 43.7 | 0.98× | | [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-decimator-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $95.07 190 coins | 12.0% | 82 | 72.8 | 1.13× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $76.84 154 coins | 15.5% | 132 | 116.5 | 1.13× | | [★ Hydra Gloves \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 111 | $72.29 145 coins | 16.4% | 148 | 131.1 | 1.13× | | [Souvenir MP9 \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-hot-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $61.04 122 coins | 15.4% | 143 | 145.6 | 0.98× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Stainless (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-stainless-factory-new) | 1 in 83 | $52.51 105 coins | 15.9% | 169 | 174.8 | 0.97× | | [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 94.9% | $0.04 0.08 coins | 1.0% | 13,788 | 13826.1 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) Hidden $4.40 8.8 coins $428 855 coins 97.17x 2026-11-08 03:14 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $4.40 8.8 coins $301 602 coins 68.38x 2026-11-10 01:33 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $4.40 8.8 coins $301 602 coins 68.38x 2026-11-07 08:56 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $4.40 8.8 coins $301 602 coins 68.38x 2026-11-07 08:56 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $4.40 8.8 coins $301 602 coins 68.38x 2026-11-05 12:10 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $4.40 8.8 coins $301 602 coins 68.38x 2026-11-05 10:44 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $4.40 8.8 coins $301 602 coins 68.38x 2026-11-04 14:58 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=5-loot) [AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $4.40 8.8 coins $0.04 0.08 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:22 UTC [AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $4.40 8.8 coins $0.04 0.08 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:22 UTC [AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $4.40 8.8 coins $0.04 0.08 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:22 UTC [AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $4.40 8.8 coins $0.04 0.08 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:22 UTC [AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $4.40 8.8 coins $0.04 0.08 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:22 UTC [AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $4.40 8.8 coins $0.04 0.08 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:22 UTC [AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $4.40 8.8 coins $0.04 0.08 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:22 UTC [AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $4.40 8.8 coins $0.04 0.08 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:22 UTC [AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $4.40 8.8 coins $0.04 0.08 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:22 UTC [AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $4.40 8.8 coins $0.04 0.08 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:22 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.40 | 89.93% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed gold 0.0% covert knife 0.1% extraordinary 1.0% covert 0.5% classified 0.5% Immortal 0.8% mil spec 1.0% Mil Spec Grade 1.2% Uncommon 94.9% best hit $428 (97.17x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.93 on average: an expected loss of $10.07 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt