--- title: "5% RARE case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "5% RARE ($0.74) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 92.20% over 11K openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/5-rare rendered: 2026-11-11T22:00Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [5% RARE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/5-rare) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · 5% RARE A case on Chicken.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/5-rare?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/5-rare?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/5-rare) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/5-rare?window=all) Price · $0.74 · 1.48 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 92.20% · 11K openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 160 openings · below min 7 days · 91.90% ±11.27 7,772 openings 30 days · 92.20% ±9.25 11K openings since tracking started · 92.20% ±9.25 11K openings 22.5% 77.3% 132.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/5-rare?window=24h) | 160 | 77.20% ±54.2 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/5-rare?window=7d) | 7,772 | 91.90% ±11.3 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/5-rare) | 11K | 92.20% ±9.25 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/5-rare?window=all) | 11K | 92.20% ±9.25 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Chicken.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Gut Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) Hidden $0.74 1.48 coins $100 201 coins 135.6x 2026-11-08 18:11 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) Hidden $0.74 1.48 coins $100 201 coins 135.6x 2026-11-06 20:11 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) Hidden $0.74 1.48 coins $100 201 coins 135.6x 2026-11-05 19:14 UTC [MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $0.74 1.48 coins $64.02 128 coins 86.51x 2026-11-04 12:35 UTC [M4A4 | Hellfire (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) Hidden $0.74 1.48 coins $44.42 88.83 coins 60.02x 2026-11-06 22:45 UTC [M4A4 | Hellfire (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) [alexpestana92g](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/alexpestana92g) $0.74 1.48 coins $44.42 88.83 coins 60.02x 2026-11-06 22:41 UTC [M4A4 | Hellfire (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) Hidden $0.74 1.48 coins $44.42 88.83 coins 60.02x 2026-11-05 18:04 UTC [M4A4 | Hellfire (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) Hidden $0.74 1.48 coins $44.42 88.83 coins 60.02x 2026-11-05 16:32 UTC [M4A4 | Hellfire (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) Hidden $0.74 1.48 coins $44.42 88.83 coins 60.02x 2026-11-05 16:26 UTC [M4A4 | Hellfire (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) Hidden $0.74 1.48 coins $44.42 88.83 coins 60.02x 2026-11-04 12:32 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=5-rare) [MP9 | Slide (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-slide-field-tested) Hidden $0.74 1.48 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:28 UTC [MP9 | Slide (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-slide-field-tested) Hidden $0.74 1.48 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:28 UTC [MP9 | Slide (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-slide-field-tested) [B4Rabbit](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/B4Rabbit) $0.74 1.48 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:28 UTC [MP9 | Slide (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-slide-field-tested) Hidden $0.74 1.48 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:28 UTC [MP9 | Slide (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-slide-field-tested) Hidden $0.74 1.48 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:28 UTC [MP9 | Slide (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-slide-field-tested) Hidden $0.74 1.48 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:28 UTC [MP9 | Slide (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-slide-field-tested) Hidden $0.74 1.48 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:28 UTC [MP9 | Slide (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-slide-field-tested) Hidden $0.74 1.48 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:28 UTC [MP9 | Slide (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-slide-field-tested) Hidden $0.74 1.48 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:23 UTC [MP9 | Slide (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-slide-field-tested) Hidden $0.74 1.48 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:23 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $100 (135.6x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.20 on average: an expected loss of $7.80 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt