--- title: "50% knife case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "50% knife ($267.52) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 68.09% over 270 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/50-knife rendered: 2026-11-11T13:59Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [50% knife](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/50-knife) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · 50% knife A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/50-knife?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/50-knife?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/50-knife) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/50-knife?window=all) Price · $267.52 · 535 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $240.76 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 68.09% · 270 openings, odds method Variance · 16.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 50 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 86.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 34 openings · below min 7 days · 68.09% ±48.44 270 openings 30 days · 68.09% ±48.44 270 openings since tracking started · 68.09% ±48.44 270 openings -0.5% 81.3% 163.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/50-knife?window=24h) | 34 | 25.78% ±136.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/50-knife?window=7d) | 270 | 68.09% ±48.4 | −0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/50-knife) | 270 | 68.09% ±48.4 | −0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/50-knife?window=all) | 270 | 68.09% ±48.4 | −0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 270 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 100 | $10.6K 21,246 coins | 44.1% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.74× | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $2,169 4,338 coins | 9.0% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.74× | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 100 | $1,454 2,909 coins | 6.0% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.37× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 100 | $1,022 2,043 coins | 4.2% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.74× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 100 | $918 1,836 coins | 3.8% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.37× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 100 | $552 1,105 coins | 2.3% | 5 | 2.7 | 1.85× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · Immortal · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 100 | $501 1,001 coins | 2.1% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.74× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $430 860 coins | 3.6% | 2 | 5.4 | 0.37× | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 50 | $416 831 coins | 3.5% | 3 | 5.4 | 0.56× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · gold · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 33 | $329 657 coins | 4.1% | 6 | 8.1 | 0.74× | | [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Night Stripe (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-night-stripe-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $263 526 coins | 4.4% | 9 | 10.8 | 0.83× | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $225 450 coins | 3.7% | 14 | 10.8 | 1.30× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $109 217 coins | 3.6% | 26 | 21.6 | 1.20× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 10.0% | $77.18 154 coins | 3.2% | 22 | 27.0 | 0.81× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-night-stripe-field-tested) | 10.0% | $56.78 114 coins | 2.4% | 23 | 27.0 | 0.85× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 50.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 150 | 135.0 | 1.11× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $268 535 coins $10.6K 21,246 coins 39.71x 2026-11-10 05:18 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $268 535 coins $10.6K 21,246 coins 39.71x 2026-11-05 20:31 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $268 535 coins $2,169 4,338 coins 8.11x 2026-11-09 13:08 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $268 535 coins $2,169 4,338 coins 8.11x 2026-11-06 15:22 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $268 535 coins $1,454 2,909 coins 5.44x 2026-11-10 05:18 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $268 535 coins $1,022 2,043 coins 3.82x 2026-11-10 05:19 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $268 535 coins $1,022 2,043 coins 3.82x 2026-11-10 05:18 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $268 535 coins $918 1,836 coins 3.43x 2026-11-04 22:37 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $268 535 coins $552 1,105 coins 2.06x 2026-11-10 05:19 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $268 535 coins $552 1,105 coins 2.06x 2026-11-10 05:19 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=50-knife) [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $268 535 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $268 535 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $268 535 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $268 535 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $268 535 coins $109 217 coins 0.41x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $268 535 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) Hidden $268 535 coins $77.18 154 coins 0.29x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Night Stripe (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-night-stripe-field-tested) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $268 535 coins $56.78 114 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) Hidden $268 535 coins $77.18 154 coins 0.29x 2026-11-11 12:29 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $268 535 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:29 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $268 | 90.00% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 29.0% legendary 1.0% Immortal 11.0% Covert 2.0% gold 3.0% other 4.0% #4b69ff 50.0% best hit $10.6K (39.71x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt