--- title: "5000x Or Bust case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "5000x Or Bust ($0.06) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 82.19% from 9 items with odds, observed 9.09% over 14.2K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/5000x-or-bust rendered: 2026-11-11T21:45Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [5000x Or Bust](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/5000x-or-bust) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · 5000x Or Bust A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/5000x-or-bust?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/5000x-or-bust?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/5000x-or-bust) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/5000x-or-bust?window=all) Price · $0.06 · 0.11 coins Advertised RTP · 82.19% · EV $0.05 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 9.09% · 14.2K openings, odds method Variance · 3298.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 10,989 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 100.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 1,960 openings · below min 7 days · 11,258 openings · below min 30 days · 14,171 openings · below min since tracking started · 14,171 openings · below min -0.5% 131.8% 264.0% **Small sample.** 14,171 openings and 1.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/5000x-or-bust?window=24h) | 1,960 | 9.09% ±254.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/5000x-or-bust?window=7d) | 11.3K | 9.09% ±106.1 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/5000x-or-bust) | 14.2K | 9.09% ±94.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/5000x-or-bust?window=all) | 14.2K | 9.09% ±94.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14.2K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir USP-S \| Royal Blue (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-royal-blue-factory-new) | 1 in 45,455 | $250 500 coins | 12.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Knives](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 45,455 | $250 500 coins | 12.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife \| Stained (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 45,455 | $249 499 coins | 12.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40,000 | $249 497 coins | 13.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 45,455 | $249 497 coins | 12.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Duct Tape (Factory New) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-duct-tape-factory-new) | 1 in 58,824 | $249 497 coins | 9.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Hydra Gloves \| Emerald (Factory New) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-emerald-factory-new) | 1 in 62,500 | $245 491 coins | 8.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 62,500 | $242 485 coins | 8.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [G3SG1 \| VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) | 100.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 11.1% | 14,171 | 14168.7 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=5000x-or-bust) [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $0.06 0.11 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 21:43 UTC [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $0.06 0.11 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 21:43 UTC [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $0.06 0.11 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 21:43 UTC [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $0.06 0.11 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 21:43 UTC [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $0.06 0.11 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 21:43 UTC [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $0.06 0.11 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 21:43 UTC [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $0.06 0.11 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 21:43 UTC [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) [vahidka023](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/vahidka023) $0.06 0.11 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 21:43 UTC [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $0.06 0.11 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 21:40 UTC [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $0.06 0.11 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 21:40 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.06 | 82.19% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed industrial 100.0% Knives 0.0% Immortal 0.0% covert 0.0% #EB4B4B 0.0% Extraordinary 0.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 82.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $82.19 on average: an expected loss of $17.81 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt