--- title: "500x or Bust case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "500x or Bust ($0.51) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.28% from 9 items with odds, observed 117.28% over 7,638 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/500x-or-bust rendered: 2026-11-11T19:51Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [500x or Bust](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/500x-or-bust) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · 500x or Bust A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/500x-or-bust?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/500x-or-bust?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/500x-or-bust) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/500x-or-bust?window=all) Price · $0.51 · 1.01 coins Advertised RTP · 89.28% · EV $0.45 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 117.28% · 7,638 openings, odds method Variance · 432.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 952 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 965 openings · below min 7 days · 110.73% ±49.62 6,744 openings 30 days · 117.28% ±46.63 7,638 openings since tracking started · 117.28% ±46.63 7,638 openings 22.5% 154.5% 286.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/500x-or-bust?window=24h) | 965 | 154.49% ±131.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/500x-or-bust?window=7d) | 6,744 | 110.73% ±49.6 | +0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/500x-or-bust) | 7,638 | 117.28% ±46.6 | +1.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/500x-or-bust?window=all) | 7,638 | 117.28% ±46.6 | +1.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,638 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir USP-S \| Royal Blue (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-royal-blue-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $250 500 coins | 11.1% | 3 | 1.5 | 1.96× | | [★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Knives](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $250 500 coins | 11.1% | 3 | 1.5 | 1.96× | | [★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife \| Stained (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $249 499 coins | 11.1% | 3 | 1.5 | 1.96× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $249 497 coins | 11.0% | 3 | 1.5 | 1.96× | | [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 4,000 | $249 497 coins | 13.8% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.57× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Duct Tape (Factory New) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-duct-tape-factory-new) | 1 in 4,000 | $249 497 coins | 13.8% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.57× | | [★ Hydra Gloves \| Emerald (Factory New) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-emerald-factory-new) | 1 in 4,000 | $245 491 coins | 13.6% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× | | [★ Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 4,000 | $242 485 coins | 13.4% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 99.8% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 1.1% | 7,620 | 7624.3 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Souvenir USP-S | Royal Blue (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-royal-blue-factory-new) Hidden $0.51 1.01 coins $250 500 coins 495.1x 2026-11-10 16:51 UTC [Souvenir USP-S | Royal Blue (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-royal-blue-factory-new) Hidden $0.51 1.01 coins $250 500 coins 495.1x 2026-11-05 10:33 UTC [Souvenir USP-S | Royal Blue (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-royal-blue-factory-new) Hidden $0.51 1.01 coins $250 500 coins 495.1x 2026-11-03 08:00 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Knives](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $0.51 1.01 coins $250 500 coins 495.0x 2026-11-11 19:30 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Knives](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $0.51 1.01 coins $250 500 coins 495.0x 2026-11-10 12:12 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Knives](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $0.51 1.01 coins $250 500 coins 495.0x 2026-11-06 19:40 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Stained (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-stained-factory-new) Hidden $0.51 1.01 coins $249 499 coins 493.8x 2026-11-11 16:31 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Stained (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-stained-factory-new) Hidden $0.51 1.01 coins $249 499 coins 493.8x 2026-11-05 23:20 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Stained (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-stained-factory-new) Hidden $0.51 1.01 coins $249 499 coins 493.8x 2026-11-04 11:02 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.51 1.01 coins $249 497 coins 492.5x 2026-11-11 19:28 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=500x-or-bust) [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.51 1.01 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:30 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.51 1.01 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:30 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.51 1.01 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:30 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.51 1.01 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:30 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.51 1.01 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:30 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.51 1.01 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:30 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.51 1.01 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:30 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.51 1.01 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:30 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.51 1.01 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:30 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.51 1.01 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:30 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.51 | 89.28% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed industrial 0.0% Knives 0.0% Immortal 0.0% covert 0.0% #EB4B4B 0.0% Extraordinary 0.1% #4b69ff 99.8% best hit $250 (495.1x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.28 on average: an expected loss of $10.72 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt