---
title: "7% Candy case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "7% Candy ($10.83) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.96% from 13 items with odds, observed 78.53% over 10.3K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/7-candy
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:59Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [7% Candy](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/7-candy)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · 7% Candy

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/7-candy?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/7-candy?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/7-candy) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/7-candy?window=all)

Price · $10.83 · 21.66 coins

Advertised RTP · 89.96% · EV $9.74 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 78.53% · 10.3K openings, odds method

Variance · 47.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 83 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 93.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 79.83% ±51.77 680 openings

7 days · 83.20% ±16.16 6,978 openings

30 days · 78.53% ±13.33 10.3K openings

since tracking started · 78.53% ±13.33 10.3K openings

27.5% 80.0% 132.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/7-candy?window=24h) | 680 | 79.83% ±51.8 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/7-candy?window=7d) | 6,978 | 83.20% ±16.2 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/7-candy) | 10.3K | 78.53% ±13.3 | −1.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/7-candy?window=all) | 10.3K | 78.53% ±13.3 | −1.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.3K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $4,962 9,924 coins | 5.1% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 5,000 | $2,251 4,502 coins | 4.6% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.49× |
| [Negev \| Mjölnir (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-mjolnir-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,598 3,196 coins | 3.3% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.49× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 2,000 | $571 1,141 coins | 2.9% | 1 | 5.1 | 0.19× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Night Stripe (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-night-stripe-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $462 924 coins | 7.1% | 10 | 15.4 | 0.65× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $373 745 coins | 7.6% | 20 | 20.6 | 0.97× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $326 653 coins | 8.4% | 30 | 25.7 | 1.17× |
| [AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $217 435 coins | 11.2% | 46 | 51.4 | 0.90× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Leather (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-leather-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $102 205 coins | 8.4% | 74 | 82.2 | 0.90× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Blueprint (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-blueprint-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $95.48 191 coins | 9.8% | 101 | 102.8 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-cyber-security-factory-new) | 1 in 57 | $85.93 172 coins | 15.4% | 194 | 179.8 | 1.08× |
| [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Charred (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-charred-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $68.84 138 coins | 15.9% | 245 | 231.2 | 1.06× |
| [XM1014 \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 93.0% | $0.03 0.05 coins | 0.2% | 9,552 | 9555.8 | 1.00× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [FalseApollo](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/FalseApollo) $10.83 21.66 coins $2,251 4,502 coins 207.8x 2026-11-05 17:03 UTC

[Negev | Mjölnir (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-mjolnir-factory-new) Hidden $10.83 21.66 coins $1,598 3,196 coins 147.5x 2026-11-06 20:27 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $10.83 21.66 coins $571 1,141 coins 52.68x 2026-11-06 16:31 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=7-candy)

[XM1014 | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-steel-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.83 21.66 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:26 UTC

[XM1014 | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-steel-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.83 21.66 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:26 UTC

[XM1014 | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-steel-minimal-wear) [GrimViper3313](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/GrimViper3313) $10.83 21.66 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:26 UTC

[XM1014 | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-steel-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.83 21.66 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:26 UTC

[XM1014 | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-steel-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.83 21.66 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:26 UTC

[XM1014 | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-steel-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.83 21.66 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:26 UTC

[XM1014 | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-steel-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.83 21.66 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:26 UTC

[XM1014 | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-steel-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.83 21.66 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:26 UTC

[XM1014 | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-steel-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.83 21.66 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:13 UTC

[XM1014 | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-steel-minimal-wear) [GrimViper3313](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/GrimViper3313) $10.83 21.66 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:13 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $10.83 | 89.96% | 13 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.2% Covert 0.0% classified 0.5% epic 0.2% gold 0.3% extraordinary 3.0% mil spec 1.0% Classified 1.8% industrial 93.0% best hit $2,251 (207.8x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.96 on average: an expected loss of $10.04 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt