--- title: "80% risk case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "80% risk ($0.73) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 131.03% over 201 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/80-risk rendered: 2026-11-11T18:47Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [80% risk](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/80-risk) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · 80% risk A case on Chicken.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/80-risk?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/80-risk?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/80-risk) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/80-risk?window=all) Price · $0.73 · 1.45 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 131.03% · 201 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 104 openings · below min 7 days · 193 openings · below min 30 days · 201 openings · below min since tracking started · 201 openings · below min 27.5% 125.3% 223.0% **Small sample.** 201 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/80-risk?window=24h) | 104 | 125.33% ±97.0 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/80-risk?window=7d) | 193 | 132.85% ±61.8 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/80-risk) | 201 | 131.03% ±59.7 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/80-risk?window=all) | 201 | 131.03% ±59.7 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Chicken.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=80-risk) [MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) Hidden $0.72 1.45 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:17 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) Hidden $0.72 1.45 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:17 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) Hidden $0.72 1.45 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:17 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) Hidden $0.72 1.45 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:17 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) Hidden $0.72 1.45 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:17 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) Hidden $0.72 1.45 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:17 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) Hidden $0.72 1.45 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:17 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) Hidden $0.72 1.45 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:17 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) Hidden $0.72 1.45 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:14 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) Hidden $0.72 1.45 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:14 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 131.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $131.03 on average: an expected loss of $0.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt