--- title: "9% Luck Box case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "9% Luck Box ($39.06) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 14 items with odds, observed 78.73% over 740 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/9-luck-box rendered: 2026-11-11T13:53Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [9% Luck Box](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/9-luck-box) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · 9% Luck Box A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/9-luck-box?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/9-luck-box?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/9-luck-box) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/9-luck-box?window=all) Price · $39.06 · 78.12 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $35.15 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 78.73% · 740 openings, odds method Variance · 11.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 32 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 91.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 96 openings · below min 7 days · 81.21% ±29.19 522 openings 30 days · 78.73% ±24.52 740 openings since tracking started · 78.73% ±24.52 740 openings 45.0% 113.8% 182.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/9-luck-box?window=24h) | 96 | 113.58% ±68.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/9-luck-box?window=7d) | 522 | 81.21% ±29.2 | −0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/9-luck-box) | 740 | 78.73% ±24.5 | −0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/9-luck-box?window=all) | 740 | 78.73% ±24.5 | −0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 740 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) | 1 in 227 | $721 1,442 coins | 9.0% | 6 | 3.3 | 1.84× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 227 | $700 1,401 coins | 8.8% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.61× | | [Souvenir Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-desert-eagle-hand-cannon-factory-new) | 1 in 227 | $660 1,320 coins | 8.3% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.92× | | [★ Karambit \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 227 | $650 1,300 coins | 8.1% | 5 | 3.3 | 1.54× | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 227 | $627 1,254 coins | 7.9% | 1 | 3.3 | 0.31× | | [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 227 | $620 1,241 coins | 7.8% | 1 | 3.3 | 0.31× | | [Charm \| Lil' Monster charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-monster) | 1 in 227 | $606 1,211 coins | 7.6% | 1 | 3.3 | 0.31× | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Bright Water (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 227 | $572 1,143 coins | 7.2% | 4 | 3.3 | 1.23× | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 227 | $564 1,128 coins | 7.1% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.61× | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Night (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-night-factory-new) | 1 in 227 | $465 930 coins | 5.8% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.61× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 227 | $452 903 coins | 5.7% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.92× | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 86 | $224 447 coins | 7.4% | 7 | 8.6 | 0.82× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $112 223 coins | 9.5% | 24 | 22.2 | 1.08× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 91.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 679 | 673.4 | 1.01× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [StatTrak™ AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) Hidden $39.06 78.12 coins $721 1,442 coins 18.46x 2026-11-10 12:31 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) [prudent](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/prudent) $39.06 78.12 coins $721 1,442 coins 18.46x 2026-11-09 11:22 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) Hidden $39.06 78.12 coins $721 1,442 coins 18.46x 2026-11-05 20:58 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) Hidden $39.06 78.12 coins $721 1,442 coins 18.46x 2026-11-04 19:31 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) Hidden $39.06 78.12 coins $721 1,442 coins 18.46x 2026-11-04 12:14 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) Hidden $39.06 78.12 coins $721 1,442 coins 18.46x 2026-11-04 12:05 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $39.06 78.12 coins $700 1,401 coins 17.93x 2026-11-09 21:53 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $39.06 78.12 coins $700 1,401 coins 17.93x 2026-11-04 18:46 UTC [Souvenir Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-desert-eagle-hand-cannon-factory-new) Hidden $39.06 78.12 coins $660 1,320 coins 16.90x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC [Souvenir Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-desert-eagle-hand-cannon-factory-new) Hidden $39.06 78.12 coins $660 1,320 coins 16.90x 2026-11-10 20:54 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=9-luck-box) [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $39.06 78.12 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $39.06 78.12 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $39.06 78.12 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Night (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-night-factory-new) Hidden $39.06 78.12 coins $465 930 coins 11.91x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $39.06 78.12 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) [nigxoo](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/nigxoo) $39.06 78.12 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $39.06 78.12 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $39.06 78.12 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $39.06 78.12 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $39.06 78.12 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $39.06 | 89.99% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 5.5% restricted 0.4% gold 0.4% covert knife 0.9% uncommon 0.4% other 0.9% extraordinary 0.4% #4b69ff 91.0% best hit $721 (18.46x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt