---
title: "Ace case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Ace ($34.20) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 113.18% over 108 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ace
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Ace](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ace)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Ace

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ace?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ace?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ace) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ace?window=all)

Price · $34.20 · 68.39 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $30.77 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 113.18% · 108 openings, odds method

Variance · 8.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 88.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 25 openings · below min

7 days · 90 openings · below min

30 days · 113.18% ±54.55 108 openings

since tracking started · 113.18% ±54.55 108 openings

23.0% 137.0% 251.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ace?window=24h) | 25 | 136.85% ±113.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ace?window=7d) | 90 | 108.74% ±59.8 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ace) | 108 | 113.18% ±54.6 | +0.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ace?window=all) | 108 | 113.18% ±54.6 | +0.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 108 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 3,333 | $2,993 5,986 coins | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $2,877 5,753 coins | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 1,667 | $1,402 2,805 coins | 2.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $751 1,501 coins | 2.4% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $556 1,113 coins | 1.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $452 903 coins | 3.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 227 | $395 789 coins | 5.6% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 154 | $336 671 coins | 7.1% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 118 | $254 507 coins | 7.0% | 3 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $152 304 coins | 6.2% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.74× |
| [Galil AR \| Aqua Terrace (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-aqua-terrace-factory-new) | 1 in 43 | $85.84 172 coins | 6.5% | 4 | 2.5 | 1.59× |
| [Tec-9 \| Terrace (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-terrace-minimal-wear) | 1 in 38 | $76.49 153 coins | 6.6% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.70× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-desolate-space-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $61.59 123 coins | 6.0% | 0 | 3.2 | 0.00× |
| [MAG-7 \| Prism Terrace (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-prism-terrace-minimal-wear) | 25.0% | $32.98 65.95 coins | 26.8% | 25 | 27.0 | 0.93× |
| [P250 \| Facets (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-facets-factory-new) | 25.0% | $11.26 22.52 coins | 9.1% | 28 | 27.0 | 1.04× |
| [P2000 \| Space Race (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-space-race-field-tested) | 38.3% | $2.17 4.34 coins | 2.7% | 42 | 41.3 | 1.02× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $34.20 68.39 coins $751 1,501 coins 21.95x 2026-11-04 18:36 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=ace)

[★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $34.20 68.39 coins $254 507 coins 7.42x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC

[★ Ursus Knife | Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-scorched-factory-new) Hidden $34.20 68.39 coins $152 304 coins 4.44x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC

[P250 | Facets (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-facets-factory-new) Hidden $34.20 68.39 coins $11.26 22.52 coins 0.33x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC

[P2000 | Space Race (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-space-race-field-tested) Hidden $34.20 68.39 coins $2.17 4.34 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC

[MAG-7 | Prism Terrace (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-prism-terrace-minimal-wear) Hidden $34.20 68.39 coins $32.98 65.95 coins 0.96x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC

[P250 | Facets (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-facets-factory-new) Hidden $34.20 68.39 coins $11.26 22.52 coins 0.33x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC

[P2000 | Space Race (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-space-race-field-tested) Hidden $34.20 68.39 coins $2.17 4.34 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC

[Galil AR | Aqua Terrace (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-aqua-terrace-factory-new) Hidden $34.20 68.39 coins $85.84 172 coins 2.51x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC

[P2000 | Space Race (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-space-race-field-tested) Hidden $34.20 68.39 coins $2.17 4.34 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 07:50 UTC

[P250 | Facets (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-facets-factory-new) Hidden $34.20 68.39 coins $11.26 22.52 coins 0.33x 2026-11-11 07:50 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $34.20 | 90.00% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 1.2% legendary 0.0% other 1.0% Covert 0.1% extraordinary 0.3% covert knife 1.3% mil spec 2.3% #4b69ff 2.6% classified 3.0% restricted 63.3% industrial 25.0% best hit $751 (21.95x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt