--- title: "Afterglow case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Afterglow ($16.73) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 81.93% over 93 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/afterglow rendered: 2026-11-11T13:53Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Afterglow](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/afterglow) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Afterglow A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/afterglow?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/afterglow?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/afterglow) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/afterglow?window=all) Price · $16.73 · 33.46 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $15.06 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 81.93% · 93 openings, odds method Variance · 3.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 60.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 93 openings · below min 30 days · 93 openings · below min since tracking started · 93 openings · below min 45.5% 82.0% 118.5% **Small sample.** 93 openings and 18.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/afterglow?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/afterglow?window=7d) | 93 | 81.93% ±35.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/afterglow) | 93 | 81.93% ±35.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/afterglow?window=all) | 93 | 81.93% ±35.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 93 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,543 3,086 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,510 3,021 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,012 2,023 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $87.89 176 coins | 14.6% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.29× | | [Souvenir CZ75-Auto \| Chalice (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-cz75-auto-chalice-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $71.23 142 coins | 11.8% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.86× | | [P250 \| Digital Architect (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-digital-architect-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $33.09 66.18 coins | 11.0% | 5 | 4.7 | 1.08× | | [SCAR-20 \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-emerald-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $23.26 46.51 coins | 7.7% | 3 | 4.7 | 0.65× | | [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $22.31 44.61 coins | 7.4% | 2 | 4.7 | 0.43× | | [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $21.29 42.58 coins | 7.1% | 5 | 4.7 | 1.08× | | [MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-propaganda-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $20.66 41.32 coins | 6.9% | 2 | 4.7 | 0.43× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $19.18 38.36 coins | 6.4% | 1 | 4.7 | 0.22× | | [Five-SeveN \| Jungle (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-jungle-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $17.64 35.28 coins | 5.9% | 8 | 4.7 | 1.72× | | [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $14.17 28.33 coins | 4.7% | 4 | 4.7 | 0.86× | | [AWP \| Atheris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $7.71 15.42 coins | 2.6% | 4 | 4.7 | 0.86× | | [FAMAS \| Pulse (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-factory-new) | 10.0% | $4.27 8.53 coins | 2.8% | 19 | 9.3 | 2.04× | | [P250 \| Muertos (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-minimal-wear) | 40.0% | $3.21 6.41 coins | 8.5% | 35 | 37.2 | 0.94× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=afterglow) [FAMAS | Pulse (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-factory-new) Hidden $16.73 33.46 coins $4.27 8.53 coins 0.25x 2026-11-09 15:25 UTC [AWP | Atheris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-factory-new) Hidden $16.73 33.46 coins $7.71 15.42 coins 0.46x 2026-11-09 15:25 UTC [P250 | Muertos (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-minimal-wear) Hidden $16.73 33.46 coins $3.21 6.41 coins 0.19x 2026-11-09 15:25 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-factory-new) Hidden $16.73 33.46 coins $87.89 176 coins 5.25x 2026-11-09 15:25 UTC [FAMAS | Pulse (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-factory-new) Hidden $16.73 33.46 coins $4.27 8.53 coins 0.25x 2026-11-09 15:25 UTC [P250 | Muertos (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-minimal-wear) Hidden $16.73 33.46 coins $3.21 6.41 coins 0.19x 2026-11-09 15:25 UTC [AWP | Atheris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-factory-new) Hidden $16.73 33.46 coins $7.71 15.42 coins 0.46x 2026-11-09 15:25 UTC [P250 | Muertos (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-minimal-wear) [Vinnie2524](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Vinnie2524) $16.73 33.46 coins $3.21 6.41 coins 0.19x 2026-11-09 15:25 UTC [FAMAS | Pulse (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-factory-new) Hidden $16.73 33.46 coins $4.27 8.53 coins 0.25x 2026-11-09 15:24 UTC [AWP | Atheris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-factory-new) Hidden $16.73 33.46 coins $7.71 15.42 coins 0.46x 2026-11-09 15:24 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $16.73 | 90.00% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed #EB4B4B 0.0% covert 17.5% restricted 27.5% #d32ee6 5.0% mil spec 5.0% Consumer Grade 5.0% classified 40.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt