---
title: "AK Crate case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "AK Crate ($79.23) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 91.43% over 32 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ak-crate
rendered: 2026-11-11T16:53Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [AK Crate](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ak-crate)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · AK Crate

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ak-crate?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ak-crate?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ak-crate) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ak-crate?window=all)

Price · $79.23 · 158 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $71.31 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 91.43% · 32 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 74.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 32 openings · below min

7 days · 32 openings · below min

30 days · 32 openings · below min

since tracking started · 32 openings · below min

10.0% 91.5% 173.0%

**Small sample.** 32 openings and 1.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ak-crate?window=24h) | 32 | 91.43% ±80.9 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ak-crate?window=7d) | 32 | 91.43% ±80.9 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ak-crate) | 32 | 91.43% ±80.9 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ak-crate?window=all) | 32 | 91.43% ±80.9 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 32 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,694 5,388 coins | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $1,371 2,743 coins | 7.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,301 2,602 coins | 9.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $818 1,635 coins | 11.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $639 1,278 coins | 9.0% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $285 570 coins | 12.0% | 3 | 1.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-nightwish-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $145 290 coins | 6.1% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $115 231 coins | 4.9% | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 14.0% | $104 208 coins | 20.4% | 2 | 4.5 | 0.45× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $51.39 103 coins | 2.9% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $47.87 95.74 coins | 2.7% | 3 | 1.3 | 2.34× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $21.58 43.15 coins | 2.1% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.34× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-factory-new) | 14.0% | $12.79 25.57 coins | 2.5% | 6 | 4.5 | 1.34× |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 14.0% | $10.59 21.17 coins | 2.1% | 3 | 4.5 | 0.67× |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-field-tested) | 14.0% | $10.56 21.12 coins | 2.1% | 4 | 4.5 | 0.89× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-factory-new) | 17.0% | $5.22 10.44 coins | 1.2% | 5 | 5.4 | 0.92× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $79.23 158 coins $639 1,278 coins 8.07x 2026-11-11 16:16 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=ak-crate)

[AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) Hidden $79.23 158 coins $21.58 43.15 coins 0.27x 2026-11-11 16:18 UTC

[AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) Hidden $79.23 158 coins $104 208 coins 1.31x 2026-11-11 16:18 UTC

[AK-47 | Slate (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-factory-new) Hidden $79.23 158 coins $5.22 10.44 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 16:18 UTC

[AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-factory-new) Hidden $79.23 158 coins $12.79 25.57 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 16:18 UTC

[AK-47 | Head Shot (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-field-tested) Hidden $79.23 158 coins $10.56 21.12 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 16:18 UTC

[AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-factory-new) Hidden $79.23 158 coins $12.79 25.57 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 16:18 UTC

[AK-47 | Head Shot (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-field-tested) Hidden $79.23 158 coins $10.56 21.12 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 16:18 UTC

[AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-factory-new) [kvaki](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/kvaki) $79.23 158 coins $12.79 25.57 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 16:18 UTC

[AK-47 | Slate (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-factory-new) Hidden $79.23 158 coins $5.22 10.44 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 16:16 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $79.23 158 coins $639 1,278 coins 8.07x 2026-11-11 16:16 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $79.23 | 90.00% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 32.6% classified 18.4% Ancient 18.0% Legendary 14.0% restricted 17.0% best hit $639 (8.07x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt