--- title: "AK47 Risker case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "AK47 Risker ($37.41) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 16 items with odds, observed 93.23% over 65 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ak47-risker rendered: 2026-11-11T19:52Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [AK47 Risker](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ak47-risker) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · AK47 Risker A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ak47-risker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ak47-risker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ak47-risker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ak47-risker?window=all) Price · $37.41 · 74.82 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $33.67 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.23% · 65 openings, odds method Variance · 5.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.3% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 79.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 9 openings · below min 7 days · 33 openings · below min 30 days · 65 openings · below min since tracking started · 65 openings · below min -0.5% 99.5% 199.5% **Small sample.** 65 openings and 13.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ak47-risker?window=24h) | 9 | 52.89% ±146.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ak47-risker?window=7d) | 33 | 91.02% ±76.3 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ak47-risker) | 65 | 93.23% ±54.4 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ak47-risker?window=all) | 65 | 93.23% ±54.4 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 65 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $8,972 17,944 coins | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,301 2,602 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,036 2,071 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Jet Set (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jet-set-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $632 1,265 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $285 570 coins | 2.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $253 506 coins | 2.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $217 435 coins | 1.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $211 423 coins | 1.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-nightwish-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $145 290 coins | 12.9% | 6 | 1.9 | 3.08× | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $135 270 coins | 12.0% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.51× | | [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $104 208 coins | 9.3% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.03× | | [AK-47 \| First Class (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-first-class-factory-new) | 10.0% | $95.82 192 coins | 28.5% | 7 | 6.5 | 1.08× | | [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-factory-new) | 10.0% | $35.95 71.89 coins | 10.7% | 3 | 6.5 | 0.46× | | [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-field-tested) | 13.0% | $26.89 53.78 coins | 10.4% | 7 | 8.4 | 0.83× | | [AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-field-tested) | 26.0% | $5.10 10.2 coins | 3.9% | 17 | 16.9 | 1.01× | | [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 30.7% | $0.04 0.08 coins | 0.0% | 22 | 20.0 | 1.10× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=ak47-risker) [AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $37.41 74.82 coins $0.04 0.08 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 21:00 UTC [AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $37.41 74.82 coins $0.04 0.08 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 21:00 UTC [AK-47 | Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-field-tested) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $37.41 74.82 coins $5.10 10.2 coins 0.14x 2026-11-10 21:00 UTC [AK-47 | Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-field-tested) Hidden $37.41 74.82 coins $5.10 10.2 coins 0.14x 2026-11-10 20:45 UTC [AK-47 | First Class (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-first-class-factory-new) Hidden $37.41 74.82 coins $95.82 192 coins 2.56x 2026-11-10 20:45 UTC [AK-47 | Leet Museo (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-factory-new) Hidden $37.41 74.82 coins $35.95 71.89 coins 0.96x 2026-11-10 20:45 UTC [AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $37.41 74.82 coins $0.04 0.08 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 20:45 UTC [AK-47 | Leet Museo (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-factory-new) Hidden $37.41 74.82 coins $35.95 71.89 coins 0.96x 2026-11-10 20:45 UTC [AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $37.41 74.82 coins $0.04 0.08 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 20:45 UTC [AK-47 | Red Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-field-tested) Hidden $37.41 74.82 coins $26.89 53.78 coins 0.72x 2026-11-09 18:02 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $37.41 | 89.99% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.0% covert 16.3% classified 39.6% rare 0.3% Industrial Grade 3.0% restricted 10.0% Uncommon 30.7% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt