--- title: "Aloha case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Aloha ($168.60) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 70.13% over 20 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/aloha rendered: 2026-11-11T19:59Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Aloha](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/aloha) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Aloha A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/aloha?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/aloha?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/aloha) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/aloha?window=all) Price · $168.60 · 337 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $151.74 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 70.13% · 20 openings, odds method Variance · 3.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 76.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 20 openings · below min 30 days · 20 openings · below min since tracking started · 20 openings · below min -0.5% 76.3% 153.0% **Small sample.** 20 openings and 1.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/aloha?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/aloha?window=7d) | 20 | 70.13% ±82.1 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/aloha) | 20 | 70.13% ±82.1 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/aloha?window=all) | 20 | 70.13% ±82.1 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 50 | $1,271 2,542 coins | 16.8% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Field Agent (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-field-agent-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $1,252 2,504 coins | 16.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $774 1,549 coins | 10.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $765 1,530 coins | 10.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $759 1,518 coins | 10.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Factory New) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $758 1,515 coins | 10.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $510 1,020 coins | 6.7% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $270 541 coins | 3.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $268 536 coins | 3.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $268 536 coins | 3.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $266 531 coins | 3.5% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $266 531 coins | 3.5% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [Souvenir P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-nuclear-threat-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $54.19 108 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-elite-build-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $53.59 107 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Stainless (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-stainless-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $52.51 105 coins | 0.7% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [SG 553 \| Aloha (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-field-tested) | 70.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 15 | 14.0 | 1.07× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $169 337 coins $1,271 2,542 coins 7.54x 2026-11-07 02:24 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $169 337 coins $510 1,020 coins 3.03x 2026-11-07 02:24 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=aloha) [SG 553 | Aloha (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-field-tested) Hidden $169 337 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-07 02:25 UTC [SG 553 | Aloha (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-field-tested) Hidden $169 337 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-07 02:25 UTC [SG 553 | Aloha (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-field-tested) Hidden $169 337 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-07 02:25 UTC [SG 553 | Aloha (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-field-tested) Hidden $169 337 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-07 02:25 UTC [SG 553 | Aloha (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-field-tested) Hidden $169 337 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-07 02:25 UTC [SG 553 | Aloha (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-field-tested) Hidden $169 337 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-07 02:25 UTC [SG 553 | Aloha (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-field-tested) Hidden $169 337 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-07 02:25 UTC [SG 553 | Aloha (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-field-tested) [Tomex](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Tomex) $169 337 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-07 02:25 UTC [SG 553 | Aloha (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-field-tested) Hidden $169 337 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-07 02:24 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $169 337 coins $510 1,020 coins 3.03x 2026-11-07 02:24 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $169 | 90.00% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 8.0% extraordinary 2.0% legendary 2.0% #eb4b4b 2.0% epic 2.0% covert knife 6.0% Covert 2.0% Mythical 2.0% classified 2.0% Mil Spec Grade 2.0% blue 70.0% best hit $1,271 (7.54x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt