--- title: "Ambush case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Ambush ($2,437.52) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 31.56% over 36 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ambush rendered: 2026-11-11T15:19Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Ambush](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ambush) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Ambush A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ambush?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ambush?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ambush) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ambush?window=all) Price · $2,437.52 · 4,875 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $2,193.76 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 31.56% · 36 openings, odds method Variance · 4.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 77.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 4 openings · below min 7 days · 36 openings · below min 30 days · 36 openings · below min since tracking started · 36 openings · below min -0.5% 124.8% 250.0% **Small sample.** 36 openings and 2.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ambush?window=24h) | 4 | 33.99% ±215.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ambush?window=7d) | 36 | 31.56% ±71.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ambush) | 36 | 31.56% ±71.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ambush?window=all) | 36 | 31.56% ±71.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 36 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Team Dignitas (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-dignitas-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 100 | $31.6K 63,128 coins | 14.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $18.7K 37,392 coins | 25.6% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $15.1K 30,112 coins | 20.6% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.93× | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 33 | $9,483 18,967 coins | 13.0% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $9,355 18,710 coins | 12.8% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [Sticker \| 3DMAX (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-3dmax-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 20 | $3,314 6,628 coins | 7.6% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.67× | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $2,694 5,388 coins | 6.1% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× | | [Sawed-Off \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 77.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 31 | 27.7 | 1.12× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) Hidden $2,438 4,875 coins $15.1K 30,112 coins 6.18x 2026-11-06 00:45 UTC [Sticker | 3DMAX (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-3dmax-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $2,438 4,875 coins $3,314 6,628 coins 1.36x 2026-11-10 16:31 UTC [Sticker | 3DMAX (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-3dmax-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $2,438 4,875 coins $3,314 6,628 coins 1.36x 2026-11-06 17:45 UTC [Sticker | 3DMAX (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-3dmax-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $2,438 4,875 coins $3,314 6,628 coins 1.36x 2026-11-06 00:45 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) Hidden $2,438 4,875 coins $2,694 5,388 coins 1.11x 2026-11-06 00:45 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=ambush) [Sawed-Off | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-forest-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $2,438 4,875 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 16:31 UTC [Sawed-Off | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-forest-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $2,438 4,875 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 16:31 UTC [Sticker | 3DMAX (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-3dmax-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $2,438 4,875 coins $3,314 6,628 coins 1.36x 2026-11-10 16:31 UTC [Sawed-Off | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-forest-ddpat-field-tested) [Sanityy](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Sanityy) $2,438 4,875 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 16:31 UTC [Sawed-Off | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-forest-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $2,438 4,875 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-06 17:45 UTC [Sticker | 3DMAX (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-3dmax-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $2,438 4,875 coins $3,314 6,628 coins 1.36x 2026-11-06 17:45 UTC [Sawed-Off | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-forest-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $2,438 4,875 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-06 17:45 UTC [Sawed-Off | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-forest-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $2,438 4,875 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-06 17:45 UTC [Sawed-Off | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-forest-ddpat-field-tested) [pooop](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/pooop) $2,438 4,875 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-06 17:45 UTC [Sawed-Off | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-forest-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $2,438 4,875 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-06 17:45 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2,438 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed remarkable 6.0% extraordinary 6.0% #EB4B4B 3.0% covert 8.0% consumer 77.0% best hit $15.1K (6.18x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt