--- title: "Ancient case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Ancient ($30.40) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 12 items with odds, observed 69.34% over 375 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ancient rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ancient) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Ancient A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ancient?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ancient?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ancient) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ancient?window=all) Price · $30.40 · 60.8 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $27.36 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 69.34% · 375 openings, odds method Variance · 28.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 48 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 92.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 56 openings · below min 7 days · 73.86% ±62.53 283 openings 30 days · 69.34% ±54.32 375 openings since tracking started · 69.34% ±54.32 375 openings -0.5% 73.5% 147.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ancient?window=24h) | 56 | 6.18% ±140.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ancient?window=7d) | 283 | 73.86% ±62.5 | −0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ancient) | 375 | 69.34% ±54.3 | −0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ancient?window=all) | 375 | 69.34% ±54.3 | −0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 375 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Charm \| Chicken Lil' charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-chicken-lil) | 1 in 10,000 | $5,000 10,000 coins | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-eye-of-horus-factory-new) | 1 in 3,030 | $3,920 7,840 coins | 4.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,754 | $2,694 5,388 coins | 5.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-factory-new) | 1 in 1,250 | $2,112 4,224 coins | 6.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,505 3,010 coins | 5.5% | 2 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Diamondback (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-diamondback-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $696 1,392 coins | 12.7% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Scorched (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $658 1,315 coins | 12.0% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.53× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $507 1,015 coins | 14.8% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.67× | | [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-imminent-danger-battle-scarred) | 1 in 118 | $463 926 coins | 14.4% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.94× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 57 | $272 543 coins | 17.4% | 5 | 6.6 | 0.76× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Stainless (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-stainless-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $52.51 105 coins | 4.8% | 9 | 9.4 | 0.96× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 92.8% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 353 | 348.1 | 1.01× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) Hidden $30.40 60.8 coins $1,505 3,010 coins 49.50x 2026-11-06 19:52 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) Hidden $30.40 60.8 coins $1,505 3,010 coins 49.50x 2026-11-04 18:44 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Scorched (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-scorched-factory-new) [Neowise](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Neowise) $30.40 60.8 coins $658 1,315 coins 21.63x 2026-11-03 13:31 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-boreal-forest-factory-new) Hidden $30.40 60.8 coins $507 1,015 coins 16.69x 2026-11-08 21:55 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-boreal-forest-factory-new) Hidden $30.40 60.8 coins $507 1,015 coins 16.69x 2026-11-06 15:17 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=ancient) [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $30.40 60.8 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $30.40 60.8 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $30.40 60.8 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $30.40 60.8 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $30.40 60.8 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $30.40 60.8 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $30.40 60.8 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $30.40 60.8 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $30.40 60.8 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 07:50 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $30.40 60.8 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 07:50 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $30.40 | 89.99% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed uncommon 0.0% covert 0.9% extraordinary 0.6% legendary 0.1% other 0.5% Covert 0.9% covert knife 1.8% Mil Spec Grade 2.5% #4b69ff 92.8% best hit $1,505 (49.50x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt