--- title: "Apex Rifle case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Apex Rifle ($16.55) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 12 items with odds, observed 92.21% over 246 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/apex-rifle rendered: 2026-11-11T21:22Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Apex Rifle](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/apex-rifle) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Apex Rifle A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/apex-rifle?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/apex-rifle?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/apex-rifle) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/apex-rifle?window=all) Price · $16.55 · 33.09 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $14.89 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 92.21% · 246 openings, odds method Variance · 6.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 22 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 88.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 91.60% ±33.70 210 openings 30 days · 92.21% ±31.13 246 openings since tracking started · 92.21% ±31.13 246 openings 57.5% 91.8% 126.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/apex-rifle?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/apex-rifle?window=7d) | 210 | 91.60% ±33.7 | +0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/apex-rifle) | 246 | 92.21% ±31.1 | +0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/apex-rifle?window=all) | 246 | 92.21% ±31.1 | +0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 246 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| BOOM (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $259 519 coins | 17.4% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.41× | | [AWP \| Silk Tiger (Factory New) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $182 364 coins | 18.3% | 5 | 3.7 | 1.36× | | [AWP \| Doodle Lore (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-doodle-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $156 312 coins | 21.0% | 5 | 4.9 | 1.02× | | [AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $65.87 132 coins | 15.5% | 10 | 8.6 | 1.16× | | [Souvenir SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-death-strike-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $51.37 103 coins | 12.1% | 9 | 8.6 | 1.05× | | [SSG 08 \| Lichen Dashed (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-lichen-dashed-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $14.17 28.33 coins | 5.7% | 18 | 14.8 | 1.22× | | [G3SG1 \| Demeter (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-demeter-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $9.21 18.42 coins | 3.7% | 18 | 14.8 | 1.22× | | [G3SG1 \| Demeter (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-demeter-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $5.02 10.04 coins | 2.0% | 19 | 14.8 | 1.29× | | [AWP \| POP AWP (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-factory-new) | 10.0% | $3.98 7.95 coins | 2.7% | 30 | 24.6 | 1.22× | | [AWP \| Worm God (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $0.97 1.94 coins | 0.7% | 18 | 24.6 | 0.73× | | [SSG 08 \| Spring Twilly (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-spring-twilly-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.77 1.54 coins | 0.5% | 19 | 24.6 | 0.77× | | [G3SG1 \| Ventilator (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-ventilator-factory-new) | 40.5% | $0.17 0.33 coins | 0.4% | 94 | 99.6 | 0.94× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=apex-rifle) [SSG 08 | Lichen Dashed (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-lichen-dashed-factory-new) Hidden $16.55 33.09 coins $14.17 28.33 coins 0.86x 2026-11-10 19:52 UTC [G3SG1 | Ventilator (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-ventilator-factory-new) Hidden $16.55 33.09 coins $0.17 0.33 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 19:52 UTC [AWP | POP AWP (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-factory-new) Hidden $16.55 33.09 coins $3.98 7.95 coins 0.24x 2026-11-10 19:52 UTC [AWP | Silk Tiger (Factory New) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-factory-new) [pooop](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/pooop) $16.55 33.09 coins $182 364 coins 10.99x 2026-11-10 19:52 UTC [SSG 08 | Lichen Dashed (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-lichen-dashed-factory-new) Hidden $16.55 33.09 coins $14.17 28.33 coins 0.86x 2026-11-10 19:45 UTC [G3SG1 | Ventilator (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-ventilator-factory-new) Hidden $16.55 33.09 coins $0.17 0.33 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 19:45 UTC [G3SG1 | Demeter (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-demeter-factory-new) Hidden $16.55 33.09 coins $9.21 18.42 coins 0.56x 2026-11-10 19:45 UTC [G3SG1 | Ventilator (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-ventilator-factory-new) Hidden $16.55 33.09 coins $0.17 0.33 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 19:45 UTC [AWP | POP AWP (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-factory-new) Hidden $16.55 33.09 coins $3.98 7.95 coins 0.24x 2026-11-10 19:45 UTC [AWP | POP AWP (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-factory-new) [pooop](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/pooop) $16.55 33.09 coins $3.98 7.95 coins 0.24x 2026-11-10 19:45 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $16.55 | 89.99% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 8.0% #d32ee6 1.5% other 2.0% consumer 6.0% mil spec 12.0% Restricted 10.0% #8847ff 10.0% Mil Spec Grade 10.0% Rare 40.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt