--- title: "Arctic Glow case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Arctic Glow ($4.16) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.95% from 11 items with odds, observed 106.14% over 384 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/arctic-glow rendered: 2026-11-11T18:47Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Arctic Glow](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/arctic-glow) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Arctic Glow A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/arctic-glow?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/arctic-glow?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/arctic-glow) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/arctic-glow?window=all) Price · $4.16 · 8.32 coins Advertised RTP · 89.95% · EV $3.74 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 106.14% · 384 openings, odds method Variance · 7.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.9% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 79.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 84 openings · below min 7 days · 123.38% ±32.94 264 openings 30 days · 106.14% ±27.31 384 openings since tracking started · 106.14% ±27.31 384 openings 50.0% 109.0% 168.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/arctic-glow?window=24h) | 84 | 109.14% ±58.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/arctic-glow?window=7d) | 264 | 123.38% ±32.9 | +2.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/arctic-glow) | 384 | 106.14% ±27.3 | +1.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/arctic-glow?window=all) | 384 | 106.14% ±27.3 | +1.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 384 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $259 519 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-emperor-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $250 500 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · Knives · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 4,000 | $235 470 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,667 | $180 360 coins | 2.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-nightwish-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $145 290 coins | 3.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-polygon-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $137 274 coins | 3.7% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $131 262 coins | 3.5% | 3 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $129 258 coins | 3.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $51.39 103 coins | 5.5% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.65× | | [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) | 20.0% | $7.18 14.36 coins | 38.4% | 86 | 76.8 | 1.12× | | [PP-Bizon \| Seabird (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-seabird-field-tested) | 79.1% | $1.70 3.39 coins | 35.8% | 293 | 303.7 | 0.96× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=arctic-glow) [AK-47 | Nightwish (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) Hidden $4.16 8.32 coins $7.18 14.36 coins 1.73x 2026-11-11 18:23 UTC [PP-Bizon | Seabird (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-seabird-field-tested) Hidden $4.16 8.32 coins $1.70 3.39 coins 0.41x 2026-11-11 18:23 UTC [AK-47 | Nightwish (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) Hidden $4.16 8.32 coins $7.18 14.36 coins 1.73x 2026-11-11 18:23 UTC [PP-Bizon | Seabird (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-seabird-field-tested) Hidden $4.16 8.32 coins $1.70 3.39 coins 0.41x 2026-11-11 18:23 UTC [PP-Bizon | Seabird (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-seabird-field-tested) Hidden $4.16 8.32 coins $1.70 3.39 coins 0.41x 2026-11-11 18:23 UTC [AK-47 | Nightwish (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) Hidden $4.16 8.32 coins $7.18 14.36 coins 1.73x 2026-11-11 18:23 UTC [PP-Bizon | Seabird (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-seabird-field-tested) Hidden $4.16 8.32 coins $1.70 3.39 coins 0.41x 2026-11-11 18:23 UTC [PP-Bizon | Seabird (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-seabird-field-tested) [iMadyyyy](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/iMadyyyy) $4.16 8.32 coins $1.70 3.39 coins 0.41x 2026-11-11 18:23 UTC [PP-Bizon | Seabird (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-seabird-field-tested) Hidden $4.16 8.32 coins $1.70 3.39 coins 0.41x 2026-11-11 18:23 UTC [PP-Bizon | Seabird (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-seabird-field-tested) Hidden $4.16 8.32 coins $1.70 3.39 coins 0.41x 2026-11-11 18:23 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.16 | 89.95% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 20.5% Knives 0.0% sunny 0.1% extraordinary 0.1% knifes 0.1% covert knife 0.1% consumer 79.1% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.95 on average: an expected loss of $10.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt