--- title: "Area 51 case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Area 51 ($157.39) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 100.69% over 32 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/area-51 rendered: 2026-11-12T07:00Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Area 51](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/area-51) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Area 51 A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/area-51?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/area-51?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/area-51) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/area-51?window=all) Price · $157.39 · 315 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $141.65 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 100.69% · 32 openings, odds method Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 21.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 58.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 32 openings · below min 30 days · 32 openings · below min since tracking started · 32 openings · below min 63.0% 100.8% 138.5% **Small sample.** 32 openings and 6.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/area-51?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/area-51?window=7d) | 32 | 100.69% ±37.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/area-51) | 32 | 100.69% ±37.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/area-51?window=all) | 32 | 100.69% ±37.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 32 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $527 1,055 coins | 26.1% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.89× | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $404 809 coins | 20.0% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.89× | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $301 602 coins | 14.9% | 5 | 2.2 | 2.23× | | [Souvenir MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mag-7-bulldozer-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $251 501 coins | 12.4% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.45× | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $227 454 coins | 11.2% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.45× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-big-game-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $167 334 coins | 8.3% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.34× | | [Souvenir Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-desert-eagle-hand-cannon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $144 288 coins | 7.1% | 5 | 2.2 | 2.23× | | [Dual Berettas \| Oil Change (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-oil-change-field-tested) | 51.0% | $0.28 0.55 coins | 0.1% | 13 | 16.3 | 0.80× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 12 Nov, 02:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) [Andushka](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Andushka) $157 315 coins $527 1,055 coins 3.35x 2026-11-07 21:18 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $157 315 coins $527 1,055 coins 3.35x 2026-11-05 11:50 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=area-51) [Dual Berettas | Oil Change (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-oil-change-field-tested) Hidden $157 315 coins $0.28 0.55 coins 0.00x 2026-11-07 21:18 UTC [Dual Berettas | Oil Change (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-oil-change-field-tested) Hidden $157 315 coins $0.28 0.55 coins 0.00x 2026-11-07 21:18 UTC [Dual Berettas | Oil Change (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-oil-change-field-tested) Hidden $157 315 coins $0.28 0.55 coins 0.00x 2026-11-07 21:18 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Autotronic (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-autotronic-factory-new) Hidden $157 315 coins $301 602 coins 1.91x 2026-11-07 21:18 UTC [Souvenir Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-desert-eagle-hand-cannon-battle-scarred) Hidden $157 315 coins $144 288 coins 0.92x 2026-11-07 21:18 UTC [Souvenir Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-desert-eagle-hand-cannon-battle-scarred) Hidden $157 315 coins $144 288 coins 0.92x 2026-11-07 21:18 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $157 315 coins $404 809 coins 2.57x 2026-11-07 21:18 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) [Andushka](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Andushka) $157 315 coins $527 1,055 coins 3.35x 2026-11-07 21:18 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Autotronic (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-autotronic-factory-new) Hidden $157 315 coins $301 602 coins 1.91x 2026-11-07 02:25 UTC [Dual Berettas | Oil Change (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-oil-change-field-tested) Hidden $157 315 coins $0.28 0.55 coins 0.00x 2026-11-07 02:25 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $157 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert knife 21.0% restricted 7.0% covert 7.0% extraordinary 7.0% Restricted 7.0% Common 51.0% best hit $527 (3.35x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt