--- title: "Armory Drop case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Armory Drop ($20.64) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 13 items with odds, observed 109.67% over 56 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/armory-drop rendered: 2026-11-11T13:32Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Armory Drop](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/armory-drop) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Armory Drop A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/armory-drop?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/armory-drop?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/armory-drop) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/armory-drop?window=all) Price · $20.64 · 41.28 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $18.57 from 13 items Observed RTP, 30d · 109.67% · 56 openings, odds method Variance · 4.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 16 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 81.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 56 openings · below min 30 days · 56 openings · below min since tracking started · 56 openings · below min 54.0% 109.8% 165.5% **Small sample.** 56 openings and 3.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/armory-drop?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/armory-drop?window=7d) | 56 | 109.67% ±55.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/armory-drop) | 56 | 109.67% ±55.0 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/armory-drop?window=all) | 56 | 109.67% ±55.0 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 56 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Charm \| Stitch-Loaded charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-stitch-loaded) | 1 in 100 | $210 420 coins | 11.3% | 2 | 0.6 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 87 | $188 376 coins | 11.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-panthera-onca-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $169 338 coins | 11.4% | 2 | 0.7 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $167 335 coins | 11.3% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $131 262 coins | 10.6% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [Charm \| POP Art charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pop-art) | 1 in 67 | $125 250 coins | 10.1% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-blue-fissure-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $60.28 121 coins | 8.1% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.71× | | [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $29.36 58.71 coins | 6.3% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.34× | | [MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-propaganda-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $27.81 55.62 coins | 6.0% | 5 | 2.2 | 2.23× | | [AUG \| Momentum (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $13.70 27.4 coins | 3.3% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.40× | | [Charm \| Diamond Dog charm · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-diamond-dog) | 1 in 22 | $13.43 26.86 coins | 3.3% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.79× | | [Desert Eagle \| Urban DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $12.54 25.08 coins | 3.0% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.40× | | [G3SG1 \| Azure Zebra (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-azure-zebra-factory-new) | 68.3% | $1.01 2.02 coins | 3.7% | 38 | 38.3 | 0.99× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=armory-drop) [Charm | Stitch-Loaded charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-stitch-loaded) Hidden $20.64 41.28 coins $210 420 coins 10.17x 2026-11-10 08:06 UTC [G3SG1 | Azure Zebra (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-azure-zebra-factory-new) Hidden $20.64 41.28 coins $1.01 2.02 coins 0.05x 2026-11-10 08:06 UTC [AUG | Momentum (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-factory-new) Hidden $20.64 41.28 coins $13.70 27.4 coins 0.66x 2026-11-10 08:06 UTC [G3SG1 | Azure Zebra (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-azure-zebra-factory-new) Hidden $20.64 41.28 coins $1.01 2.02 coins 0.05x 2026-11-10 08:06 UTC [G3SG1 | Azure Zebra (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-azure-zebra-factory-new) Hidden $20.64 41.28 coins $1.01 2.02 coins 0.05x 2026-11-10 08:06 UTC [G3SG1 | Azure Zebra (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-azure-zebra-factory-new) Hidden $20.64 41.28 coins $1.01 2.02 coins 0.05x 2026-11-10 08:06 UTC [MAC-10 | Propaganda (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-propaganda-factory-new) Hidden $20.64 41.28 coins $27.81 55.62 coins 1.35x 2026-11-10 08:06 UTC [G3SG1 | Azure Zebra (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-azure-zebra-factory-new) [DANILYS](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/DANILYS) $20.64 41.28 coins $1.01 2.02 coins 0.05x 2026-11-10 08:06 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-blue-fissure-factory-new) Hidden $20.64 41.28 coins $60.28 121 coins 2.92x 2026-11-10 07:55 UTC [G3SG1 | Azure Zebra (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-azure-zebra-factory-new) Hidden $20.64 41.28 coins $1.01 2.02 coins 0.05x 2026-11-10 07:55 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $20.64 | 89.99% | 13 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Rare 1.0% Covert 1.1% Legendary 1.3% covert knife 1.3% mil spec 69.8% #8847ff 1.5% Mil Spec Grade 2.5% classified 12.5% rare 4.5% industrial 4.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt