--- title: "Ascendant case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Ascendant ($12.43) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 8 items with odds, observed 91.87% over 345 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ascendant rendered: 2026-11-11T13:30Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Ascendant](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ascendant) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Ascendant A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ascendant?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ascendant?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ascendant) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ascendant?window=all) Price · $12.43 · 24.86 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $11.19 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.87% · 345 openings, odds method Variance · 2.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 32.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 43.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 28 openings · below min 7 days · 93.14% ±17.16 336 openings 30 days · 91.87% ±16.94 345 openings since tracking started · 91.87% ±16.94 345 openings 74.5% 143.5% 212.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ascendant?window=24h) | 28 | 152.60% ±59.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ascendant?window=7d) | 336 | 93.14% ±17.2 | +0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ascendant) | 345 | 91.87% ±16.9 | +0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ascendant?window=all) | 345 | 91.87% ±16.9 | +0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 345 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,534 3,068 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir Five-SeveN \| Fall Hazard (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-five-seven-fall-hazard-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $51.69 103 coins | 32.3% | 23 | 24.2 | 0.95× | | [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 25.0% | $15.38 30.75 coins | 34.4% | 95 | 86.3 | 1.10× | | [Tec-9 \| Hades (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-hades-factory-new) | 25.0% | $12.80 25.6 coins | 28.6% | 92 | 86.3 | 1.07× | | [MAG-7 \| Firestarter (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-factory-new) | 10.0% | $2.63 5.26 coins | 2.4% | 31 | 34.5 | 0.90× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pole-position-factory-new) | 10.0% | $1.01 2.02 coins | 0.9% | 29 | 34.5 | 0.84× | | [Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-field-tested) | 10.0% | $0.04 0.07 coins | 0.0% | 38 | 34.5 | 1.10× | | [Nova \| Polar Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-polar-mesh-field-tested) | 13.0% | $0.02 0.04 coins | 0.0% | 37 | 44.8 | 0.83× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=ascendant) [MAG-7 | Firestarter (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-factory-new) Hidden $12.43 24.86 coins $2.63 5.26 coins 0.21x 2026-11-10 21:46 UTC [MAG-7 | Firestarter (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-factory-new) Hidden $12.43 24.86 coins $2.63 5.26 coins 0.21x 2026-11-10 21:46 UTC [M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) Hidden $12.43 24.86 coins $15.38 30.75 coins 1.24x 2026-11-10 21:46 UTC [M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) Hidden $12.43 24.86 coins $15.38 30.75 coins 1.24x 2026-11-10 21:46 UTC [M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) Hidden $12.43 24.86 coins $15.38 30.75 coins 1.24x 2026-11-10 21:46 UTC [Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-five-seven-fall-hazard-battle-scarred) [valentinslisaks](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/valentinslisaks) $12.43 24.86 coins $51.69 103 coins 4.16x 2026-11-10 21:46 UTC [Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-five-seven-fall-hazard-battle-scarred) Hidden $12.43 24.86 coins $51.69 103 coins 4.16x 2026-11-10 21:45 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Pole Position (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pole-position-factory-new) Hidden $12.43 24.86 coins $1.01 2.02 coins 0.08x 2026-11-10 21:45 UTC [M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) Hidden $12.43 24.86 coins $15.38 30.75 coins 1.24x 2026-11-10 21:45 UTC [Tec-9 | Hades (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-hades-factory-new) Hidden $12.43 24.86 coins $12.80 25.6 coins 1.03x 2026-11-10 21:45 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $12.43 | 89.99% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.0% Classified 7.0% covert 25.0% Industrial Grade 25.0% Mil Spec Grade 10.0% #8847ff 10.0% mil spec 10.0% consumer 13.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt