--- title: "Assassin case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Assassin ($533.43) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 14 items with odds, observed 98.48% over 4 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/assassin rendered: 2026-11-11T13:11Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Assassin](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/assassin) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Assassin A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/assassin?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/assassin?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/assassin) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/assassin?window=all) Price · $533.43 · 1,067 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $480.08 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 98.48% · 4 openings, odds method Variance · 0.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 44.1% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 4 openings · below min 30 days · 4 openings · below min since tracking started · 4 openings · below min 63.5% 98.5% 133.5% **Small sample.** 4 openings and 1.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/assassin?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/assassin?window=7d) | 4 | 98.48% ±34.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/assassin) | 4 | 98.48% ±34.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/assassin?window=all) | 4 | 98.48% ±34.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 100,000 | $7,898 15,795 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $7,754 15,508 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 100,000 | $7,752 15,504 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 100,000 | $6,327 12,654 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,946 3,893 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 50 | $908 1,816 coins | 3.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 50 | $899 1,799 coins | 3.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $893 1,787 coins | 3.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $751 1,501 coins | 4.7% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 35.0% | $510 1,020 coins | 37.2% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 35.0% | $506 1,012 coins | 36.9% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.43× | | [★ Karambit \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $339 678 coins | 4.9% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $259 517 coins | 3.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $56.77 114 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $533 1,067 coins $751 1,501 coins 1.41x 2026-11-07 02:05 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [BlankTorch7918](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/BlankTorch7918) $533 1,067 coins $506 1,012 coins 0.95x 2026-11-07 02:05 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $533 1,067 coins $506 1,012 coins 0.95x 2026-11-07 02:05 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=assassin) [★ Karambit | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $533 1,067 coins $339 678 coins 0.64x 2026-11-07 02:05 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $533 1,067 coins $751 1,501 coins 1.41x 2026-11-07 02:05 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $533 1,067 coins $506 1,012 coins 0.95x 2026-11-07 02:05 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [BlankTorch7918](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/BlankTorch7918) $533 1,067 coins $506 1,012 coins 0.95x 2026-11-07 02:05 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $533 | 90.00% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 44.1% legendary 0.0% #EB4B4B 0.0% other 5.0% Covert 2.0% epic 35.0% covert knife 7.0% gold 6.9% best hit $751 (1.41x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt