--- title: "Aurora Sky case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Aurora Sky ($18.47) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 8 items with odds, observed 83.89% over 985 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/aurora-sky rendered: 2026-11-11T17:29Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Aurora Sky](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/aurora-sky) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Aurora Sky A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/aurora-sky?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/aurora-sky?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/aurora-sky) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/aurora-sky?window=all) Price · $18.47 · 36.94 coins Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $16.62 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 83.89% · 985 openings, odds method Variance · 50.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 62 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 92.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 10 openings · below min 7 days · 90.92% ±50.76 753 openings 30 days · 83.89% ±44.39 985 openings since tracking started · 83.89% ±44.39 985 openings -0.5% 227.0% 454.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/aurora-sky?window=24h) | 10 | 13.23% ±440.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/aurora-sky?window=7d) | 753 | 90.92% ±50.8 | +0.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/aurora-sky) | 985 | 83.89% ±44.4 | −0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/aurora-sky?window=all) | 985 | 83.89% ±44.4 | −0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 985 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $9,355 18,710 coins | 5.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,788 3,576 coins | 10.8% | 1 | 1.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $932 1,864 coins | 28.0% | 4 | 4.9 | 0.81× | | [Souvenir Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $293 587 coins | 17.7% | 11 | 9.8 | 1.12× | | [Souvenir Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $102 205 coins | 12.3% | 27 | 19.7 | 1.37× | | [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $57.63 115 coins | 13.9% | 31 | 39.4 | 0.79× | | [AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-factory-new) | 15.0% | $9.52 19.03 coins | 8.6% | 153 | 147.8 | 1.04× | | [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-factory-new) | 77.4% | $0.68 1.35 coins | 3.1% | 758 | 762.3 | 0.99× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-factory-new) Hidden $18.47 36.94 coins $1,788 3,576 coins 96.81x 2026-11-05 23:40 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) Hidden $18.47 36.94 coins $932 1,864 coins 50.46x 2026-11-10 13:22 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) Hidden $18.47 36.94 coins $932 1,864 coins 50.46x 2026-11-10 00:07 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) [axel02legmail](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/axel02legmail) $18.47 36.94 coins $932 1,864 coins 50.46x 2026-11-07 18:12 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) [kvaki](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/kvaki) $18.47 36.94 coins $932 1,864 coins 50.46x 2026-11-06 15:49 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=aurora-sky) [Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-factory-new) Hidden $18.47 36.94 coins $0.68 1.35 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-factory-new) Hidden $18.47 36.94 coins $0.68 1.35 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-factory-new) Hidden $18.47 36.94 coins $0.68 1.35 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-factory-new) Hidden $18.47 36.94 coins $0.68 1.35 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-factory-new) Hidden $18.47 36.94 coins $0.68 1.35 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-factory-new) [return](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/return) $18.47 36.94 coins $0.68 1.35 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-factory-new) Hidden $18.47 36.94 coins $0.68 1.35 coins 0.04x 2026-11-10 19:52 UTC [AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $18.47 36.94 coins $9.52 19.03 coins 0.52x 2026-11-10 19:52 UTC [AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $18.47 36.94 coins $9.52 19.03 coins 0.52x 2026-11-10 19:52 UTC [Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-factory-new) [pooop](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/pooop) $18.47 36.94 coins $0.68 1.35 coins 0.04x 2026-11-10 19:52 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $18.47 | 89.98% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.0% legendary 0.1% classified 4.5% restricted 78.4% Restricted 2.0% Mythical 15.0% best hit $1,788 (96.81x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt